Gold
FG Spread home
Best number on this game is FG Spread home, +8.8 against Pinnacle.
The model has New York Giants ahead at the end of the quarter 38% of the time, Dallas Cowboys 40%, and the quarter level 22%, with 9.6 pts projected. New York Giants gets on the board 67% of the time and Dallas Cowboys 68%; the opening drive ends in points 47% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 92% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
9.6
Pinnacle 9.5
NYG leads after Q1
38%
DAL 40%, level 22%
DAL scores in Q1
68%
context only, no pick
NYG scores in Q1
67%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
47%
league 42%
Game total (model)
45.6
Pinnacle 47.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
88%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Dallas Cowboys scores in the 1st quarter
68%
Context only: its offence against NYG’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
New York Giants scores in the 1st quarter
67%
Context only: its offence against DAL’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
47%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
92%
Context only: scoreless the other 8%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
DAL
40%
Dallas Cowboys leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 68%, context only
NYG
38%
New York Giants leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 67%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 43%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
NYG
We give them a 47% chance,
+6.8 edge at +141
Game margin
DAL
−0.9
The book is at +2.5,
+8.8 edge on
NYG
Total points in the game
45.6
The book is at 47.5,
we like the under, +7.3 edge
The model has New York Giants winning 47% of the time, +6.8 better than Pinnacle’s +141 implies. We project Dallas Cowboys by 0.9 pts against a posted NYG +2.5, which puts the value on NYG at +8.8. 45.6 pts projected in total against a posted 47.5: we like the under, +7.3.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
57%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
9.5
Open, 9.5
unchanged
Now, 9.5
Q1 spread (H)
0.5
Open, 0.5
unchanged
Now, 0.5
Q1 ML home
+115
▼ from
+116
Open, +116
moved -1
Now, +115
Q1 ML away
-132
▲ from
-133
Open, -133
moved +1
Now, -132
FG total
47.5
Open, 47.5
unchanged
Now, 47.5
FG spread (H)
2.5
Open, 2.5
unchanged
Now, 2.5
FG ML home
+141
▲ from
+138
Open, +138
moved +3
Now, +141
FG ML away
-160
▼ from
-156
Open, -156
moved -4
Now, -160
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model NYG 38% / tie 22% / DAL 40% | (+115) | +106 | NYG | +3.6 | Lean |
| 1st quarter total we project 9.6 pts | 9.5 (-104) | +103 | Under 9.5 | +0.2 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project DAL by 0.2 | 0.5 (-135) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model NYG 47% | (+141) | +112 | NYG | +6.8 | Wager |
| Spread model NYG +0.9 | 2.5 (+111) | -121 | NYG +2.5 | +8.8 ★ | Gold |
| Game total model 45.6 pts | 47.5 (-101) | -126 | Under 47.5 | +7.3 ★ | Gold |
Every change we made, and why
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 94.9pp
to 92.0pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 78.3pp
to 66.8pp.
-11.5pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 40.3pp
to 38.1pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.1pp
to 40.3pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.21
to -0.21.
-0.4 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.66
to 45.56.
+2.9 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.4
to 0.94.
+2.3 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG win prob home moved from 54.3pp
to 47.1pp.
-7.2pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Spread home.
noted
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.0pp
to 94.9pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 66.8pp
to 78.3pp.
+11.5pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.1pp
to 40.3pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.3pp
to 38.1pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.21
to 0.21.
+0.4 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.56
to 42.66.
-2.9 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.94
to -1.4.
-2.3 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG win prob home moved from 47.1pp
to 54.3pp.
+7.2pp ▲
Thu 9:12a ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 94.9pp
to 92.0pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 78.3pp
to 66.8pp.
-11.5pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 40.3pp
to 38.1pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.1pp
to 40.3pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.21
to -0.21.
-0.4 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.66
to 45.56.
+2.9 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.4
to 0.94.
+2.3 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG win prob home moved from 54.3pp
to 47.1pp.
-7.2pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Spread home.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.0pp
to 94.9pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 66.8pp
to 78.3pp.
+11.5pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.1pp
to 40.3pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.3pp
to 38.1pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.21
to 0.21.
+0.4 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.56
to 42.66.
-2.9 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.94
to -1.4.
-2.3 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG win prob home moved from 47.1pp
to 54.3pp.
+7.2pp ▲
Thu 3:08a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Wed 10:05p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.76
to 45.56.
+0.8 ▲
Wed 10:05p ET
Best edge moved from 9.67
to 8.33.
-1.3 ▼
Wed 10:05p ET
Top market changed from FG Total Under
to FG Spread home.
noted
Wed 10:05p ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Wed 8:54a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.56
to 44.76.
-0.8 ▼
Wed 8:54a ET
Best edge moved from 8.33
to 9.67.
+1.3 ▲
Wed 8:54a ET
Top market changed from FG Spread home
to FG Total Under.
noted
Wed 3:31a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.76
to 45.56.
+0.8 ▲
Wed 3:31a ET
Best edge moved from 9.79
to 8.54.
-1.2 ▼
Wed 3:31a ET
Temperature moved from 67.0°F
to 75.0°F.
+8°F ▲
Wed 3:31a ET
Top market changed from FG Total Under
to FG Spread home.
noted
Tue 8:21p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.56
to 44.76.
-0.8 ▼
Tue 8:21p ET
Best edge moved from 8.54
to 9.79.
+1.2 ▲
Tue 8:21p ET
Temperature moved from 76.0°F
to 68.0°F.
-8°F ▼
Tue 8:21p ET
Top market changed from FG Spread home
to FG Total Under.
noted
Tue 8:21p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Tue 5:40p ET
Temperature moved from 58.0°F
to 81.0°F.
+23°F ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 94.9pp
to 92.0pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 78.3pp
to 66.8pp.
-11.5pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 40.3pp
to 38.1pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.1pp
to 40.3pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.21
to -0.21.
-0.4 ▼
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Nov 16, 2025
WAS @ MIA
/ 47.5 / -2.5
MIA 16: WAS 13
6
FG, MIA
Oct 20, 2024
KC @ SF
/ 47.5 / -2.5
SF 18: KC 28
3
FG, SF
Oct 9, 2022
CIN @ BAL
/ 47.5 / -3
BAL 19: CIN 17
3
FG, BAL
Jan 7, 2024
BUF @ MIA
/ 47.5 / +2.5
MIA 14: BUF 21
0
scoreless
Nov 2, 2025
SEA @ WAS
/ 47.5 / +2.5
WAS 14: SEA 38
7
TD, SEA
Oct 27, 2024
PHI @ CIN
/ 47.5 / -2.5
CIN 17: PHI 37
7
TD, CIN
Nov 2, 2025
SF @ NYG
/ 47.5 / +2.5
NYG 24: SF 34
14
TD, NYG
Nov 6, 2022
LV @ JAX
/ 47.5 / +2.5
JAX 27: LV 20
7
TD, LV
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
88% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 5.9
, opening drive scored 38%