Wager
Q1 Total Over
Best number on this game is Q1 Total Over, +5.8 against Pinnacle.
The model has Houston Texans ahead at the end of the quarter 37% of the time, Buffalo Bills 41%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.2 pts projected. Houston Texans gets on the board 63% of the time and Buffalo Bills 65%; the opening drive ends in points 37% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 90% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
8.2
Pinnacle 7.5
HOU leads after Q1
37%
BUF 41%, level 22%
BUF scores in Q1
65%
context only, no pick
HOU scores in Q1
63%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
37%
league 42%
Game total (model)
45.6
Pinnacle 45
Similar games, Q1 scored
88%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Buffalo Bills scores in the 1st quarter
65%
Context only: its offence against HOU’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Houston Texans scores in the 1st quarter
63%
Context only: its offence against BUF’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
37%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
90%
Context only: scoreless the other 10%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
BUF
41%
Buffalo Bills leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 65%, context only
HOU
37%
Houston Texans leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 63%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 38%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
HOU
We give them a 49% chance,
+2.2 edge at +106
Game margin
BUF
−0.2
The book is at +1,
+3.8 edge on
HOU
Total points in the game
45.6
The book is at 45,
we like the over, +3.5 edge
The model has Houston Texans winning 49% of the time, +2.2 better than Pinnacle’s +106 implies. We project Buffalo Bills by 0.2 pts against a posted HOU +1, which puts the value on HOU at +3.8. 45.6 pts projected in total against a posted 45: we like the over, +3.5.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
43%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
0.5
▲ from
-0.5
Open, -0.5
moved +1
Now, 0.5
Q1 ML home
-103
▲ from
-108
Open, -108
moved +5
Now, -103
Q1 ML away
-112
▼ from
-106
Open, -106
moved -6
Now, -112
FG total
45
▲ from
44
Open, 44
moved +1
Now, 45
FG spread (H)
1
Open, 1
unchanged
Now, 1
FG ML home
+106
▲ from
-107
Open, -107
moved +213
Now, +106
FG ML away
-119
▼ from
-105
Open, -105
moved -14
Now, -119
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model HOU 37% / tie 22% / BUF 41% | (-112) | -111 | BUF | +1.5 | Lean |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.2 pts | 7.5 (-104) | -121 | Over 7.5 | +5.8 | Wager |
| 1st quarter margin we project BUF by 0.4 | 0.5 (-163) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model HOU 49% | (+106) | +102 | HOU | +2.2 | Lean |
| Spread model HOU +0.2 | 1 (-100) | -110 | HOU +1 | +3.8 | Lean |
| Game total model 45.6 pts | 45 (-101) | -108 | Over 45 | +3.5 | Lean |
Every change we made, and why
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.5pp
to 90.3pp.
-1.2pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 67.5pp
to 63.3pp.
-4.2pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.18
to 8.17.
-1.0 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG total (model) moved from 46.59
to 45.63.
-1.0 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.0
to 0.2.
+1.2 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG win prob home moved from 53.1pp
to 49.4pp.
-3.7pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.3pp
to 91.5pp.
+1.2pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.3pp
to 67.5pp.
+4.2pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.17
to 9.18.
+1.0 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.63
to 46.59.
+1.0 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.2
to -1.0.
-1.2 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG win prob home moved from 49.4pp
to 53.1pp.
+3.7pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.5pp
to 90.3pp.
-1.2pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 67.5pp
to 63.3pp.
-4.2pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.18
to 8.17.
-1.0 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG total (model) moved from 46.59
to 45.63.
-1.0 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.0
to 0.2.
+1.2 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG win prob home moved from 53.1pp
to 49.4pp.
-3.7pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.3pp
to 91.5pp.
+1.2pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.3pp
to 67.5pp.
+4.2pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.17
to 9.18.
+1.0 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.63
to 46.59.
+1.0 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.2
to -1.0.
-1.2 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG win prob home moved from 49.4pp
to 53.1pp.
+3.7pp ▲
Tue 12:23p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.03
to 45.63.
+0.6 ▲
Mon 6:24p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 40.3pp
to 37.2pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Mon 6:24p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.1pp
to 41.2pp.
+3.1pp ▲
Mon 6:24p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.21
to -0.39.
-0.6 ▼
Mon 8:36a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.2pp
to 40.3pp.
+3.1pp ▲
Mon 8:36a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 41.2pp
to 38.1pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Mon 8:36a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.39
to 0.21.
+0.6 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.5pp
to 90.3pp.
-1.2pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 67.5pp
to 63.3pp.
-4.2pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.18
to 8.17.
-1.0 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG total (model) moved from 46.59
to 45.03.
-1.6 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.0
to 0.2.
+1.2 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG win prob home moved from 53.1pp
to 49.4pp.
-3.7pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Mon 8:16a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.3pp
to 91.5pp.
+1.2pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.3pp
to 67.5pp.
+4.2pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.17
to 9.18.
+1.0 ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.03
to 46.59.
+1.6 ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.2
to -1.0.
-1.2 ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
FG win prob home moved from 49.4pp
to 53.1pp.
+3.7pp ▲
Sun 11:42p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 40.3pp
to 37.2pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Sun 11:42p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.1pp
to 41.2pp.
+3.1pp ▲
Sun 11:42p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.21
to -0.39.
-0.6 ▼
Sun 9:44p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.2pp
to 63.6pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Sun 9:44p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.0pp
to 40.3pp.
+2.3pp ▲
Sun 9:44p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.5pp
to 38.1pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Sun 9:44p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.87
to 8.17.
-0.7 ▼
Sun 9:44p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.24
to 0.21.
+0.5 ▲
Sun 9:44p ET
Best edge moved from 0.94
to 5.25.
+4.3 ▲
Sun 9:44p ET
Tier changed from neutral
to wager.
noted
Sun 9:44p ET
Top market changed from FG Total Over
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Dec 18, 2022
NE @ LV
/ 45 / -1
LV 30: NE 24
3
FG, LV
Oct 9, 2023
GB @ LV
/ 45 / -1
LV 17: GB 13
3
FG, GB
Nov 3, 2024
CHI @ ARI
/ 44.5 / -1.5
ARI 29: CHI 9
7
TD, ARI
Nov 19, 2023
SEA @ LA
/ 45 / -2.5
LA 17: SEA 16
7
TD, SEA
Nov 26, 2023
TB @ IND
/ 45 / -2.5
IND 27: TB 20
13
FG, TB
Jan 13, 2024
CLE @ HOU
/ 45 / +2.5
HOU 45: CLE 14
17
FG, HOU
Nov 7, 2022
BAL @ NO
/ 46 / +1
NO 13: BAL 27
7
TD, BAL
Oct 21, 2024
LAC @ ARI
/ 44 / +1
ARI 17: LAC 15
0
scoreless
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
88% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 7.1
, opening drive scored 25%