Gold
Q1 ML away
Best number on this game is Q1 ML away, +8.9 against Pinnacle.
The model has Las Vegas Raiders ahead at the end of the quarter 38% of the time, Miami Dolphins 41%, and the quarter level 22%, with 7.5 pts projected. Las Vegas Raiders gets on the board 62% of the time and Miami Dolphins 63%; the opening drive ends in points 39% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 90% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
7.5
Pinnacle 7
LV leads after Q1
38%
MIA 41%, level 22%
MIA scores in Q1
63%
context only, no pick
LV scores in Q1
62%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
39%
league 42%
Game total (model)
40.6
Pinnacle 40.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
62%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Miami Dolphins scores in the 1st quarter
63%
Context only: its offence against LV’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Las Vegas Raiders scores in the 1st quarter
62%
Context only: its offence against MIA’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
39%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
90%
Context only: scoreless the other 10%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
MIA
41%
Miami Dolphins leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 63%, context only
LV
38%
Las Vegas Raiders leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 62%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 36%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
MIA
We give them a 47% chance,
+7.7 edge at +144
Game margin
LV
−0.8
The book is at -3,
+7.3 edge on
MIA
Total points in the game
40.6
The book is at 40.5,
we like the over, +1.5 edge
The model has Miami Dolphins winning 47% of the time, +7.7 better than Pinnacle’s +144 implies. We project Las Vegas Raiders by 0.8 pts against a posted LV -3, which puts the value on MIA at +7.3. 40.6 pts projected in total against a posted 40.5: we like the over, +1.5.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
60%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7
Open, 7
unchanged
Now, 7
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-143
▲ from
-152
Open, -152
moved +9
Now, -143
Q1 ML away
+124
▼ from
+131
Open, +131
moved -7
Now, +124
FG total
40.5
Open, 40.5
unchanged
Now, 40.5
FG spread (H)
-3
▲ from
-3.5
Open, -3.5
moved +0.5
Now, -3
FG ML home
-164
▲ from
-194
Open, -194
moved +30
Now, -164
FG ML away
+144
▼ from
+169
Open, +169
moved -25
Now, +144
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model LV 38% / tie 22% / MIA 41% | (+124) | -109 | MIA | +8.9 ★ | Gold |
| 1st quarter total we project 7.5 pts | 7 (-123) | -117 | Over 7 | +0.9 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project MIA by 0.3 | -0.5 (+123) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model LV 53% | (+144) | +111 | MIA | +7.7 ★ | Gold |
| Spread model LV -0.8 | -3 (-103) | -131 | MIA +3 | +7.3 ★ | Gold |
| Game total model 40.6 pts | 40.5 (-103) | -102 | Over 40.5 | +1.5 | — |
Every change we made, and why
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.8pp
to 89.5pp.
-1.3pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 68.9pp
to 63.4pp.
-5.5pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 31.4pp
to 37.6pp.
+6.2pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 47.0pp
to 40.8pp.
-6.2pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.38
to 7.55.
-0.8 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -1.53
to -0.31.
+1.2 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 2.45
to -0.82.
-3.3 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG win prob home moved from 42.5pp
to 52.5pp.
+10pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.5pp
to 90.8pp.
+1.3pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.4pp
to 68.9pp.
+5.5pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.6pp
to 31.4pp.
-6.2pp ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.8pp
to 47.0pp.
+6.2pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.55
to 8.38.
+0.8 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.31
to -1.53.
-1.2 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -0.82
to 2.45.
+3.3 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG win prob home moved from 52.5pp
to 42.5pp.
-10pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.8pp
to 89.5pp.
-1.3pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 68.9pp
to 63.4pp.
-5.5pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 31.4pp
to 37.6pp.
+6.2pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 47.0pp
to 40.8pp.
-6.2pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.38
to 7.55.
-0.8 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -1.53
to -0.31.
+1.2 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 2.45
to -0.82.
-3.3 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG win prob home moved from 42.5pp
to 52.5pp.
+10pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.5pp
to 90.8pp.
+1.3pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.4pp
to 68.9pp.
+5.5pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.6pp
to 31.4pp.
-6.2pp ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.8pp
to 47.0pp.
+6.2pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.55
to 8.38.
+0.8 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.31
to -1.53.
-1.2 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -0.82
to 2.45.
+3.3 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG win prob home moved from 52.5pp
to 42.5pp.
-10pp ▼
Wed 4:30p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.8pp
to 89.5pp.
-1.3pp ▼
Wed 4:30p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 68.9pp
to 63.4pp.
-5.5pp ▼
Wed 4:30p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 31.4pp
to 37.6pp.
+6.2pp ▲
Wed 4:30p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 47.0pp
to 40.8pp.
-6.2pp ▼
Wed 4:30p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.38
to 7.55.
-0.8 ▼
Wed 4:30p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -1.53
to -0.31.
+1.2 ▲
Wed 4:30p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 2.45
to -0.82.
-3.3 ▼
Wed 4:30p ET
FG win prob home moved from 42.5pp
to 52.5pp.
+10pp ▲
Wed 4:30p ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Wed 4:30p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Wed 4:15p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.5pp
to 90.8pp.
+1.3pp ▲
Wed 4:15p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.4pp
to 68.9pp.
+5.5pp ▲
Wed 4:15p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.6pp
to 31.4pp.
-6.2pp ▼
Wed 4:15p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.8pp
to 47.0pp.
+6.2pp ▲
Wed 4:15p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.55
to 8.38.
+0.8 ▲
Wed 4:15p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.31
to -1.53.
-1.2 ▼
Wed 4:15p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.12
to 2.45.
+3.6 ▲
Wed 4:15p ET
FG win prob home moved from 53.4pp
to 42.5pp.
-10.9pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.8pp
to 89.5pp.
-1.3pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 68.9pp
to 63.4pp.
-5.5pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 31.4pp
to 37.6pp.
+6.2pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 47.0pp
to 40.8pp.
-6.2pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.38
to 7.55.
-0.8 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -1.53
to -0.31.
+1.2 ▲
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Oct 2, 2022
WAS @ DAL
/ 40.5 / -3
DAL 25: WAS 10
3
FG, DAL
Oct 30, 2022
WAS @ IND
/ 40.5 / -3
IND 16: WAS 17
0
scoreless
Dec 10, 2023
MIN @ LV
/ 40.5 / +3
LV 0: MIN 3
0
scoreless
Sep 14, 2025
SF @ NO
/ 40.5 / +3
NO 21: SF 26
6
TD, SF
Dec 28, 2025
NYG @ LV
/ 40.5 / +3
LV 10: NYG 34
7
TD, NYG
Sep 10, 2023
CAR @ ATL
/ 40.5 / -3.5
ATL 24: CAR 10
0
scoreless
Nov 20, 2022
WAS @ HOU
/ 41 / +3
HOU 10: WAS 23
7
TD, WAS
Sep 10, 2023
TEN @ NO
/ 41 / -3
NO 16: TEN 15
9
FG, TEN
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
62% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 4.0
, opening drive scored 25%