Wager
FG ML away
Best number on this game is FG ML away, +5.9 against Pinnacle.
The model has Los Angeles Chargers ahead at the end of the quarter 48% of the time, Arizona Cardinals 30%, and the quarter level 22%, with 9.3 pts projected. Los Angeles Chargers gets on the board 71% of the time and Arizona Cardinals 63%; the opening drive ends in points 43% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 92% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
9.3
Pinnacle 9.5
LAC leads after Q1
48%
ARI 30%, level 22%
ARI scores in Q1
63%
context only, no pick
LAC scores in Q1
71%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
43%
league 42%
Game total (model)
45.6
Pinnacle 47
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Arizona Cardinals scores in the 1st quarter
63%
Context only: its offence against LAC’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Los Angeles Chargers scores in the 1st quarter
71%
Context only: its offence against ARI’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
43%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
92%
Context only: scoreless the other 8%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
ARI
30%
Arizona Cardinals leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 63%, context only
LAC
48%
Los Angeles Chargers leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 71%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 41%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
ARI
We give them a 27% chance,
+5.9 edge at +367
Game margin
LAC
−8.1
The book is at -9.5,
+2.3 edge on
ARI
Total points in the game
45.6
The book is at 47,
we like the under, +4.9 edge
The model has Arizona Cardinals winning 27% of the time, +5.9 better than Pinnacle’s +367 implies. We project Los Angeles Chargers by 8.1 pts against a posted LAC -9.5, which puts the value on ARI at +2.3. 45.6 pts projected in total against a posted 47: we like the under, +4.9.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
62%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
9.5
Open, 9.5
unchanged
Now, 9.5
Q1 spread (H)
-3
Open, -3
unchanged
Now, -3
Q1 ML home
-227
▲ from
-258
Open, -258
moved +31
Now, -227
Q1 ML away
+191
▼ from
+214
Open, +214
moved -23
Now, +191
FG total
47
Open, 47
unchanged
Now, 47
FG spread (H)
-9.5
▲ from
-10.5
Open, -10.5
moved +1
Now, -9.5
FG ML home
-466
▲ from
-510
Open, -510
moved +44
Now, -466
FG ML away
+367
▼ from
+395
Open, +395
moved -28
Now, +367
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model LAC 48% / tie 22% / ARI 30% | (+191) | +160 | ARI | +5.3 | Wager |
| 1st quarter total we project 9.3 pts | 9.5 (-108) | -107 | Under 9.5 | +1.6 | Lean |
| 1st quarter margin we project LAC by 1.8 | -3 (-102) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model LAC 73% | (+367) | +276 | ARI | +5.9 | Wager |
| Spread model LAC -8.1 | -9.5 (-115) | -118 | ARI +9.5 | +2.3 | Lean |
| Game total model 45.6 pts | 47 (-105) | -118 | Under 47 | +4.9 | Wager |
Every change we made, and why
Fri 10:41a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 62.6pp.
-3pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.9pp
to 48.2pp.
+9.3pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.6pp
to 30.1pp.
-9.5pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.92
to 9.27.
+0.3 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.07
to 1.77.
+1.8 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.41
to 45.56.
+2.1 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -6.07
to -8.13.
-2.1 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG win prob home moved from 68.0pp
to 73.4pp.
+5.4pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML away.
noted
Fri 10:36a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 62.6pp
to 65.6pp.
+3pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 48.2pp
to 38.9pp.
-9.3pp ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 30.1pp
to 39.6pp.
+9.5pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.27
to 8.92.
-0.3 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 1.77
to -0.07.
-1.8 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.56
to 43.41.
-2.1 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -8.13
to -6.07.
+2.1 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG win prob home moved from 73.4pp
to 68.0pp.
-5.4pp ▼
Thu 11:25a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -8.73
to -8.13.
+0.6 ▲
Thu 11:25a ET
FG win prob home moved from 74.9pp
to 73.4pp.
-1.5pp ▼
Thu 11:25a ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML away
to FG ML away.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 62.6pp.
-3pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.9pp
to 48.2pp.
+9.3pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.6pp
to 30.1pp.
-9.5pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.92
to 9.27.
+0.3 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.07
to 1.77.
+1.8 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.41
to 45.56.
+2.1 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -6.07
to -8.73.
-2.7 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG win prob home moved from 68.0pp
to 74.9pp.
+6.9pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 62.6pp
to 65.6pp.
+3pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 48.2pp
to 38.9pp.
-9.3pp ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 30.1pp
to 39.6pp.
+9.5pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.27
to 8.92.
-0.3 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 1.77
to -0.07.
-1.8 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.56
to 43.41.
-2.1 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -8.73
to -6.07.
+2.7 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG win prob home moved from 74.9pp
to 68.0pp.
-6.9pp ▼
Tue 2:44p ET
Best edge moved from 7.7
to 6.68.
-1.0 ▼
Tue 2:44p ET
Tier changed from gold
to wager.
noted
Mon 8:16a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 62.6pp.
-3pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.9pp
to 48.2pp.
+9.3pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.6pp
to 30.1pp.
-9.5pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.92
to 9.27.
+0.3 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.07
to 1.77.
+1.8 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.41
to 45.56.
+2.1 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -6.07
to -8.73.
-2.7 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG win prob home moved from 68.0pp
to 74.9pp.
+6.9pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Mon 8:16a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Mon 8:11a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 62.6pp
to 65.6pp.
+3pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 48.2pp
to 38.9pp.
-9.3pp ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 30.1pp
to 39.6pp.
+9.5pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.27
to 8.92.
-0.3 ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 1.77
to -0.07.
-1.8 ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.56
to 43.41.
-2.1 ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -8.73
to -6.07.
+2.7 ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
FG win prob home moved from 74.9pp
to 68.0pp.
-6.9pp ▼
Sun 9:49p ET
Best edge moved from 5.56
to 7.81.
+2.2 ▲
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Nov 30, 2023
SEA @ DAL
/ 47.5 / -9.5
DAL 41: SEA 35
17
FG, DAL
Nov 28, 2024
CHI @ DET
/ 47.5 / -9.5
DET 23: CHI 20
3
FG, DET
Nov 2, 2025
MIN @ DET
/ 47.5 / -9.5
DET 24: MIN 27
21
TD, DET
Nov 23, 2023
GB @ DET
/ 47 / -8.5
DET 22: GB 29
26
TD, GB
Oct 29, 2023
CHI @ LAC
/ 46 / -9.5
LAC 30: CHI 13
14
TD, LAC
Sep 18, 2022
ATL @ LA
/ 46.5 / -10.5
LA 31: ATL 27
7
TD, LA
Oct 12, 2025
ARI @ IND
/ 46.5 / -8.5
IND 31: ARI 27
14
TD, IND
Dec 4, 2022
CLE @ HOU
/ 47 / +7.5
HOU 14: CLE 27
3
FG, HOU
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 13.1
, opening drive scored 62%