Wager
Q1 ML away
Best number on this game is Q1 ML away, +6.6 against Pinnacle.
The model has Philadelphia Eagles ahead at the end of the quarter 43% of the time, Washington Commanders 35%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.0 pts projected. Philadelphia Eagles gets on the board 65% of the time and Washington Commanders 62%; the opening drive ends in points 45% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 90% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
8.0
Pinnacle 7.5
PHI leads after Q1
43%
WSH 35%, level 22%
WSH scores in Q1
62%
context only, no pick
PHI scores in Q1
65%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
45%
league 42%
Game total (model)
44.1
Pinnacle 44.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
75%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Washington Commanders scores in the 1st quarter
62%
Context only: its offence against PHI’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Philadelphia Eagles scores in the 1st quarter
65%
Context only: its offence against WSH’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
45%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
90%
Context only: scoreless the other 10%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
WSH
35%
Washington Commanders leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 62%, context only
PHI
43%
Philadelphia Eagles leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 65%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 37%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
PHI
We give them a 70% chance,
+1.0 edge at -244
Game margin
PHI
−6.7
The book is at -5.5,
+3.6 edge on
PHI
Total points in the game
44.1
The book is at 44.5,
we like the over, +0.3 edge
The model has Philadelphia Eagles winning 70% of the time, +1.0 better than Pinnacle’s -244 implies. We project Philadelphia Eagles by 6.7 pts against a posted PHI -5.5, which puts the value on PHI at +3.6. 44.1 pts projected in total against a posted 44.5: we like the over, +0.3.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
67%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-174
▲ from
-178
Open, -178
moved +4
Now, -174
Q1 ML away
+150
▼ from
+153
Open, +153
moved -3
Now, +150
FG total
44.5
▼ from
46.5
Open, 46.5
moved -2
Now, 44.5
FG spread (H)
-5.5
▼ from
-4
Open, -4
moved -1.5
Now, -5.5
FG ML home
-244
▼ from
-225
Open, -225
moved -19
Now, -244
FG ML away
+208
▲ from
+194
Open, +194
moved +14
Now, +208
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model PHI 43% / tie 22% / WSH 35% | (+150) | +121 | WSH | +6.6 | Wager |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.0 pts | 7.5 (-110) | -114 | Over 7.5 | +2.8 | Lean |
| 1st quarter margin we project PHI by 0.7 | -0.5 (-102) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model PHI 70% | (-244) | -229 | PHI | +1.0 | — |
| Spread model PHI -6.7 | -5.5 (-106) | -115 | PHI -5.5 | +3.6 | Lean |
| Game total model 44.1 pts | 44.5 (-102) | +104 | Over 44.5 | +0.3 | — |
Every change we made, and why
Fri 9:25p ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Fri 5:39p ET
Tier changed from gold
to wager.
noted
Fri 3:08p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.1pp
to 90.0pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 75.3pp
to 65.2pp.
-10.1pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 57.5pp
to 62.0pp.
+4.5pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 44.6pp
to 42.9pp.
-1.7pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 33.8pp
to 35.5pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.62
to 7.95.
-0.7 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 1.05
to 0.72.
-0.3 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.58
to 44.13.
+0.6 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -8.41
to -6.66.
+1.8 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG win prob home moved from 74.1pp
to 69.6pp.
-4.5pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.0pp
to 92.1pp.
+2.1pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.2pp
to 75.3pp.
+10.1pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 62.0pp
to 57.5pp.
-4.5pp ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 42.9pp
to 44.6pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 35.5pp
to 33.8pp.
-1.7pp ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.95
to 8.62.
+0.7 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.72
to 1.05.
+0.3 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.13
to 43.58.
-0.6 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -6.66
to -8.41.
-1.8 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG win prob home moved from 69.6pp
to 74.1pp.
+4.5pp ▲
Fri 9:10a ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Fri 3:06a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Clear.
noted
Thu 2:22p ET
Tier changed from wager
to gold.
noted
Thu 11:35a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -6.06
to -6.66.
-0.6 ▼
Thu 11:35a ET
FG win prob home moved from 68.0pp
to 69.6pp.
+1.6pp ▲
Thu 11:35a ET
Tier changed from gold
to wager.
noted
Thu 9:12a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.33
to 44.13.
+0.8 ▲
Thu 9:12a ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.1pp
to 90.0pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 75.3pp
to 65.2pp.
-10.1pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 57.5pp
to 62.0pp.
+4.5pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 44.6pp
to 42.9pp.
-1.7pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 33.8pp
to 35.5pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 1.05
to 0.72.
-0.3 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.58
to 43.33.
+1.8 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -8.41
to -6.06.
+2.4 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG win prob home moved from 74.1pp
to 68.0pp.
-6.1pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.0pp
to 92.1pp.
+2.1pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.2pp
to 75.3pp.
+10.1pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 62.0pp
to 57.5pp.
-4.5pp ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 42.9pp
to 44.6pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 35.5pp
to 33.8pp.
-1.7pp ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.72
to 1.05.
+0.3 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.33
to 41.58.
-1.8 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -6.06
to -8.41.
-2.4 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG win prob home moved from 68.0pp
to 74.1pp.
+6.1pp ▲
Thu 4:44a ET
Tier changed from wager
to gold.
noted
Thu 3:08a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.13
to 43.33.
-0.8 ▼
Thu 3:08a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Wed 9:04p ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Wed 8:54a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.33
to 44.13.
+0.8 ▲
Wed 3:31a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.13
to 43.33.
-0.8 ▼
Wed 3:31a ET
Temperature moved from 70.0°F
to 78.0°F.
+8°F ▲
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 21, 2025
ATL @ CAR
/ 44.5 / +5.5
CAR 30: ATL 0
7
TD, CAR
Dec 28, 2025
TB @ MIA
/ 44.5 / +5.5
MIA 20: TB 17
14
TD, TB
Nov 5, 2023
SEA @ BAL
/ 44.5 / -6
BAL 37: SEA 3
0
scoreless
Sep 21, 2025
KC @ NYG
/ 44.5 / +6
NYG 9: KC 22
3
FG, KC
Nov 30, 2025
ARI @ TB
/ 44.5 / -4.5
TB 20: ARI 17
0
scoreless
Dec 4, 2022
TEN @ PHI
/ 44.5 / -5
PHI 35: TEN 10
14
TD, PHI
Sep 12, 2022
DEN @ SEA
/ 44 / +6
SEA 17: DEN 16
10
TD, SEA
Sep 26, 2024
DAL @ NYG
/ 45 / +5.5
NYG 15: DAL 20
10
FG, NYG
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
75% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 7.2
, opening drive scored 25%