One number for every NFL game: which side puts points up first, how the opening drive ends, and where the sportsbook has the 1st-quarter and full-game lines wrong.
We publish every pick before kickoff and grade it the moment the market settles. No screenshots, no retroactive edits, no "this would've won." Pull the receipts, or download the whole ledger as CSV.
One game's full snapshot is open to everyone: both Q1 and full-game markets, no paywall, no email signup. It is the biggest edge on the board that week, whatever tier it lands in. Every other game on the slate sits right next to it, modeled the same way, behind a pass.
Q1 is its own game: pace is fast, kickers shorter, defenses cleaner, weather not yet dried out. FirstSnap™ models the opening 15:00 directly, then carries that signal forward through the fourth quarter so you get both the first-snap edge and the full 60-minute projection on every market.
Our specialty. Which side gets on the board, how the opening drive ends, the total, the margin, and how the first points arrive: all modeled directly on the first 15 minutes.
Game total, spread, and moneyline projections layered on top of the Q1 engine. Every matchup gets a fair price for both the first quarter and the final whistle.
Highest-conviction calls across both Q1 and full-game markets: flagged when our number sits 7 points or more clear of the book once its margin is stripped out. Size of that gap sets the badge, and nothing else, past 15 points we badge nothing at all, because a disagreement that wide with Pinnacle is usually our model breaking rather than value.
The same Q1 read carried forward into the full game: projected total, margin and win probability, priced against the book on every market we publish.
Pinnacle, the sharpest line in the market, pulled every refresh. Every market, Q1 and full-game alike, shows the posted price, the vig-free fair price, and the percentage point gap.
It reads the four most recently completed seasons of play-by-play, cut to the opening quarter and nothing else: pace, drive efficiency, opening-script tendencies, kicker range, wind. That window rolls every March, so a finished season is always in it and a season in progress never is. Full-game models average the same inputs across sixty minutes, which is how the opening fifteen end up invisible in them. The Q1 read then feeds the full-game total, spread and moneyline, so those start from a clean opening number.
Every market goes up against Pinnacle with the bookmaker margin stripped out first. The size of the gap is the badge. 7 points clear is a Gold Zone, 4 a Wager, 1.5 a Lean. Above 15 we badge nothing, because at that distance from Pinnacle the likelier explanation is our model.
Every five minutes, from the moment the schedule loads to the final whistle, so a line move lands when it lands and not on a publishing calendar. A ★ pick keeps whatever price it locked at, and that is the price the ledger grades. A later refresh moves the live number and never the record.
FirstSnap™ writes every market out in full. No abbreviations, no decoder ring: here is the whole vocabulary.
Which side is ahead when the opening quarter ends, and how often it ends level. It is the one first-quarter market our back-testing found a real edge on, so it is the one we lead with, and the edge comes from blending the market's own full-game line with our team rates, not from the team rates alone.
Whether each side gets on the board at all in the opening quarter. Away scores + home scores − someone scores gives the both-teams-score number for free. We show these for orientation and publish no pick on them: re-tested over four seasons, our numbers here did not clear the margin we treat as noise, and no sportsbook posts the market anyway.
The chance the opening drive ends in points. The coin toss has not happened before kickoff, so the number averages both possible receivers evenly. We show it for orientation and publish no pick on it: re-tested over four seasons, our number on this market did not beat the league rate.
How often any points land in the first 15 minutes. We show it for orientation and publish no pick on it: over three seasons of testing, our number on this market beat the league rate by nothing at all.
The whole product, no add-ons, no upsells, no "Pro tier" for the picks that actually matter. Less than a beer at the stadium per week.
The free pick is live now: Q1 read, full-game projection, the whole snapshot, no signup required. Buy a pass and the rest of the slate unlocks the moment it rebuilds.