Lean
FG Total Under
Best number on this game is FG Total Under, +3.0 against Pinnacle.
The model has Carolina Panthers ahead at the end of the quarter 36% of the time, Chicago Bears 42%, and the quarter level 22%, with 9.1 pts projected. Carolina Panthers gets on the board 65% of the time and Chicago Bears 68%; the opening drive ends in points 39% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 91% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
9.1
Pinnacle 9.5
CAR leads after Q1
36%
CHI 42%, level 22%
CHI scores in Q1
68%
context only, no pick
CAR scores in Q1
65%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
39%
league 42%
Game total (model)
45.8
Pinnacle 47.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
88%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Chicago Bears scores in the 1st quarter
68%
Context only: its offence against CAR’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Carolina Panthers scores in the 1st quarter
65%
Context only: its offence against CHI’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
39%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
91%
Context only: scoreless the other 9%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
CHI
42%
Chicago Bears leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 68%, context only
CAR
36%
Carolina Panthers leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 65%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 41%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
CAR
We give them a 41% chance,
+1.3 edge at +146
Game margin
CHI
−3.0
The book is at +3,
+0.1 edge on
CHI
Total points in the game
45.8
The book is at 47.5,
we like the under, +3.0 edge
The model has Carolina Panthers winning 41% of the time, +1.3 better than Pinnacle’s +146 implies. We project Chicago Bears by 3.0 pts against a posted CAR +3, which puts the value on CHI at +0.1. 45.8 pts projected in total against a posted 47.5: we like the under, +3.0.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
14%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
9.5
Open, 9.5
unchanged
Now, 9.5
Q1 spread (H)
0.5
Open, 0.5
unchanged
Now, 0.5
Q1 ML home
+117
▲ from
+114
Open, +114
moved +3
Now, +117
Q1 ML away
-134
▼ from
-131
Open, -131
moved -3
Now, -134
FG total
47.5
Open, 47.5
unchanged
Now, 47.5
FG spread (H)
3
▲ from
2.5
Open, 2.5
moved +0.5
Now, 3
FG ML home
+146
▲ from
+131
Open, +131
moved +15
Now, +146
FG ML away
-166
▼ from
-148
Open, -148
moved -18
Now, -166
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model CAR 36% / tie 22% / CHI 42% | (+117) | +117 | CAR | +1.4 | — |
| 1st quarter total we project 9.1 pts | 9.5 (-110) | -112 | Under 9.5 | +2.4 | Lean |
| 1st quarter margin we project CHI by 0.6 | 0.5 (-135) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model CAR 41% | (+146) | +145 | CAR | +1.3 | — |
| Spread model CAR +3.0 | 3 (-106) | -100 | CHI -3 | +0.1 | — |
| Game total model 45.8 pts | 47.5 (-117) | -122 | Under 47.5 | +3.0 | Lean |
Every change we made, and why
Fri 10:41a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 59.3pp
to 64.9pp.
+5.6pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 70.7pp
to 67.6pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.52
to 9.11.
+0.6 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.35
to 45.84.
+2.5 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Total Under.
noted
Fri 10:36a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.9pp
to 59.3pp.
-5.6pp ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 67.6pp
to 70.7pp.
+3.1pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.11
to 8.52.
-0.6 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.84
to 43.35.
-2.5 ▼
Thu 11:30a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 2.73
to 3.03.
+0.3 ▲
Thu 11:30a ET
Best edge moved from 4.14
to 3.0.
-1.1 ▼
Thu 11:30a ET
Tier changed from wager
to lean.
noted
Thu 11:30a ET
Top market changed from FG Spread home
to FG Total Under.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 59.3pp
to 64.9pp.
+5.6pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 70.7pp
to 67.6pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.52
to 9.11.
+0.6 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.35
to 45.84.
+2.5 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 3.08
to 2.73.
-0.3 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Spread home.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.9pp
to 59.3pp.
-5.6pp ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 67.6pp
to 70.7pp.
+3.1pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.11
to 8.52.
-0.6 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.84
to 43.35.
-2.5 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 2.73
to 3.08.
+0.3 ▲
Wed 3:50p ET
Tier changed from lean
to wager.
noted
Wed 8:54a ET
Temperature moved from 88.0°F
to 93.0°F.
+5°F ▲
Tue 9:46p ET
Temperature moved from 82.0°F
to 90.0°F.
+8°F ▲
Tue 5:40p ET
Temperature moved from 58.0°F
to 82.0°F.
+24°F ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 59.3pp
to 64.9pp.
+5.6pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 70.7pp
to 67.6pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.52
to 9.11.
+0.6 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.35
to 45.84.
+2.5 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 3.08
to 2.73.
-0.3 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Mon 8:16a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Spread home.
noted
Mon 8:11a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.9pp
to 59.3pp.
-5.6pp ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 67.6pp
to 70.7pp.
+3.1pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.11
to 8.52.
-0.6 ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.84
to 43.35.
-2.5 ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 2.73
to 3.08.
+0.3 ▲
Sun 9:26a ET
Best edge moved from 3.99
to 2.83.
-1.2 ▼
Sun 9:26a ET
Top market changed from FG Total Under
to FG Spread home.
noted
Sun 8:50a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 59.3pp
to 64.5pp.
+5.2pp ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 70.7pp
to 67.6pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Sun 8:50a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.52
to 9.02.
+0.5 ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.35
to 45.84.
+2.5 ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 3.08
to 2.73.
-0.3 ▼
Sun 8:50a ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Sun 8:50a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Total Under.
noted
Sun 8:44a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.5pp
to 59.3pp.
-5.2pp ▼
Sun 8:44a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 67.6pp
to 70.7pp.
+3.1pp ▲
Sun 8:44a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.02
to 8.52.
-0.5 ▼
Sun 8:44a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.84
to 43.35.
-2.5 ▼
Sun 8:44a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 2.73
to 3.08.
+0.3 ▲
Sat 4:31p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 59.3pp
to 64.5pp.
+5.2pp ▲
Sat 4:31p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 70.7pp
to 67.6pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Sat 4:31p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.52
to 9.02.
+0.5 ▲
Sat 4:31p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.35
to 45.84.
+2.5 ▲
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Oct 9, 2022
CIN @ BAL
/ 47.5 / -3
BAL 19: CIN 17
3
FG, BAL
Nov 16, 2025
WAS @ MIA
/ 47.5 / -2.5
MIA 16: WAS 13
6
FG, MIA
Sep 11, 2022
NE @ MIA
/ 47 / -3
MIA 20: NE 7
3
FG, MIA
Oct 20, 2024
KC @ SF
/ 47.5 / -2.5
SF 18: KC 28
3
FG, SF
Oct 1, 2023
DEN @ CHI
/ 47 / +3
CHI 28: DEN 31
7
TD, DEN
Oct 20, 2024
HOU @ GB
/ 48 / -3
GB 24: HOU 22
3
FG, HOU
Oct 9, 2022
DET @ NE
/ 46.5 / -3
NE 29: DET 0
3
FG, NE
Jan 7, 2024
BUF @ MIA
/ 47.5 / +2.5
MIA 14: BUF 21
0
scoreless
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
88% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 3.5
, opening drive scored 12%