Trends, refreshed Sat 2:11a ET

The slate at a glance.

16 games live data

Biggest edges

The widest gaps between our number and the book, across every market we price
1 Gold Zone TB @ CINSun 1:00p ET, FOX FG ML away
+9.6 2 Gold Zone TB @ CINSun 1:00p ET, FOX FG Total Under
+9.4 3 Gold Zone ATL @ PITSun 1:00p ET, FOX Q1 ML away
+9.1 4 Gold Zone BAL @ INDSun 1:00p ET, CBS FG ML home
+9.0 5 Gold Zone MIA @ LVSun 4:25p ET, FOX Q1 ML away
+8.9 6 Gold Zone DAL @ NYGSun 8:20p ET, NBC FG Spread home
+8.8 7 Gold Zone ATL @ PITSun 1:00p ET, FOX FG ML away
+8.0 8 Gold Zone MIA @ LVSun 4:25p ET, FOX FG ML away
+7.7

Home team leads after Q1

16 games, model probability, sorted high to low
1 NO @ DET 51%level 22% 2 ARI @ LAC 48%level 22% 3 CLE @ JAX 48%level 22% 4 WSH @ PHI 43%level 22% 5 NYJ @ TEN 42%level 22% 6 NE @ SEA 41%level 22% 7 ATL @ PIT 41%level 22% 8 TB @ CIN 41%level 22% 9 DEN @ KC 41%level 22% 10 GB @ MIN 40%level 22% 11 DAL @ NYG 38%level 22% 12 BAL @ IND 38%level 22% 13 SF @ LAR 38%level 22% 14 MIA @ LV 38%level 22% 15 BUF @ HOU 37%level 22% 16 CHI @ CAR 36%level 22%
Model probability that the home team is ahead when the 1st quarter ends The second figure is how often the quarter ends level Pinnacle has never posted a 1st-quarter line on an NFL regular-season game, so there is no market number to sit beside it

Q1 offence, top 10

Q1 points per game, 2022–2025
# Team Q1 pts Scores in Q1 Opens scoring Open drive
1 DET 5.9 75% 57% 46%
2 PHI 5.6 70% 56% 61%
3 SEA 5.3 68% 44% 48%
4 BUF 5.3 75% 46% 43%
5 CIN 5.3 71% 57% 59%
6 SF 5.2 74% 57% 60%
7 DAL 5.2 76% 48% 40%
8 IND 4.9 68% 49% 45%
9 BAL 4.8 75% 58% 44%
10 MIA 4.7 70% 47% 50%

Q1 defence, top 10

Lowest rate of allowing a Q1 score, 2022–2025
# Team Allows Q1 score Q1 pts allowed Q1 margin Games
1 SF 55% 3.8 +1.4 76
2 GB 56% 3.1 +1.5 72
3 BAL 56% 3.0 +1.8 73
4 LAC 56% 4.0 +0.5 71
5 CIN 59% 3.8 +1.5 70
6 CAR 59% 3.9 -0.9 69
7 KC 60% 3.5 +0.9 78
8 PHI 61% 4.1 +1.5 77
9 MIA 61% 4.7 -0.0 70
10 JAX 62% 4.1 -0.1 71

Market disagreement, model vs Pinnacle

Full-game total, x = Pinnacle line, y = our projection, diagonal = agreement
Pinnacle total our total 37.4 51.1 37.4 51.1 TB @ CIN | model 47.01, Pinnacle 50.0 (-3.0) TB @ CIN NO @ DET | model 47.53, Pinnacle 49.5 (-2.0) NO @ DET NYJ @ TEN | model 38.73, Pinnacle 38.5 (+0.2) BAL @ IND | model 46.38, Pinnacle 47.5 (-1.1) BAL @ IND ATL @ PIT | model 42.03, Pinnacle 41.0 (+1.0) CHI @ CAR | model 45.84, Pinnacle 47.5 (-1.7) CLE @ JAX | model 41.98, Pinnacle 40.5 (+1.5) CLE @ JAX BUF @ HOU | model 45.63, Pinnacle 45.0 (+0.6) MIA @ LV | model 40.63, Pinnacle 40.5 (+0.1) GB @ MIN | model 45.44, Pinnacle 46.0 (-0.6) WSH @ PHI | model 44.13, Pinnacle 44.5 (-0.4) ARI @ LAC | model 45.56, Pinnacle 47.0 (-1.4) ARI @ LAC DAL @ NYG | model 45.56, Pinnacle 47.5 (-1.9) DAL @ NYG DEN @ KC | model 44.5, Pinnacle 44.0 (+0.5)
Gold Wager Lean No edge Above the diagonal = we project more points than the book, below = fewer

Graded record

Every ★ pick that has finished and settled
Hit rate
54.8%
Net units
+7.8u
ROI
10.2%
Graded
73

Edges by market

Average positive edge on this slate, not a season average
FG ML
+4.8
Q1 ML
+4.2
FG Total
+4.1
FG Spread
+4.0
Q1 Total
+2.3
Averaged over the positive-edge sides on this slate only.
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