Wager
FG Spread away
Best number on this game is FG Spread away, +5.8 against Pinnacle.
The model has Minnesota Vikings ahead at the end of the quarter 40% of the time, Green Bay Packers 38%, and the quarter level 22%, with 7.8 pts projected. Minnesota Vikings gets on the board 64% of the time and Green Bay Packers 63%; the opening drive ends in points 46% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 90% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
7.8
Pinnacle 7.5
MIN leads after Q1
40%
GB 38%, level 22%
GB scores in Q1
63%
context only, no pick
MIN scores in Q1
64%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
46%
league 42%
Game total (model)
45.4
Pinnacle 46
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Green Bay Packers scores in the 1st quarter
63%
Context only: its offence against MIN’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Minnesota Vikings scores in the 1st quarter
64%
Context only: its offence against GB’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
46%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
90%
Context only: scoreless the other 10%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
GB
38%
Green Bay Packers leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 63%, context only
MIN
40%
Minnesota Vikings leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 64%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 37%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
GB
We give them a 50% chance,
+4.0 edge at +112
Game margin
MIN
PK
The book is at -1,
+5.8 edge on
GB
Total points in the game
45.4
The book is at 46,
we like the under, +2.1 edge
The model has Green Bay Packers winning 50% of the time, +4.0 better than Pinnacle’s +112 implies. We project Minnesota Vikings by 0.0 pts against a posted MIN -1, which puts the value on GB at +5.8. 45.4 pts projected in total against a posted 46: we like the under, +2.1.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
75%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-122
▼ from
-117
Open, -117
moved -5
Now, -122
Q1 ML away
+106
▲ from
+102
Open, +102
moved +4
Now, +106
FG total
46
▲ from
45.5
Open, 45.5
moved +0.5
Now, 46
FG spread (H)
-1
Open, -1
unchanged
Now, -1
FG ML home
-126
▼ from
-118
Open, -118
moved -8
Now, -126
FG ML away
+112
▲ from
+105
Open, +105
moved +7
Now, +112
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model MIN 40% / tie 22% / GB 38% | (+106) | +104 | GB | +2.1 | Lean |
| 1st quarter total we project 7.8 pts | 7.5 (-114) | -109 | Over 7.5 | +0.8 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project MIN by 0.1 | -0.5 (+128) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model MIN 50% | (+112) | +100 | GB | +4.0 | Wager |
| Spread model MIN -0.0 | -1 (+106) | -113 | GB +1 | +5.8 | Wager |
| Game total model 45.4 pts | 46 (-106) | -107 | Under 46 | +2.1 | Lean |
Every change we made, and why
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 87.4pp
to 89.8pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 58.6pp
to 63.6pp.
+5pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 59.6pp
to 63.0pp.
+3.4pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.2pp
to 40.0pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 41.2pp
to 38.5pp.
-2.7pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.23
to 7.79.
-0.4 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.39
to 0.14.
+0.5 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.61
to 45.44.
+0.8 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.4
to -0.04.
-1.4 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG win prob home moved from 45.7pp
to 50.1pp.
+4.4pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Spread away.
noted
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.8pp
to 87.4pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.6pp
to 58.6pp.
-5pp ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.0pp
to 59.6pp.
-3.4pp ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 40.0pp
to 37.2pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.5pp
to 41.2pp.
+2.7pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.79
to 8.23.
+0.4 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.14
to -0.39.
-0.5 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.44
to 44.61.
-0.8 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -0.04
to 1.4.
+1.4 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG win prob home moved from 50.1pp
to 45.7pp.
-4.4pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 87.4pp
to 89.8pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 58.6pp
to 63.6pp.
+5pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 59.6pp
to 63.0pp.
+3.4pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.2pp
to 40.0pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 41.2pp
to 38.5pp.
-2.7pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.23
to 7.79.
-0.4 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.39
to 0.14.
+0.5 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.61
to 45.44.
+0.8 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.4
to -0.04.
-1.4 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG win prob home moved from 45.7pp
to 50.1pp.
+4.4pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Spread away.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.8pp
to 87.4pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.6pp
to 58.6pp.
-5pp ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.0pp
to 59.6pp.
-3.4pp ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 40.0pp
to 37.2pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.5pp
to 41.2pp.
+2.7pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.79
to 8.23.
+0.4 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.14
to -0.39.
-0.5 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.44
to 44.61.
-0.8 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -0.04
to 1.4.
+1.4 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG win prob home moved from 50.1pp
to 45.7pp.
-4.4pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 87.4pp
to 89.8pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 58.6pp
to 63.6pp.
+5pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 59.6pp
to 63.0pp.
+3.4pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.2pp
to 40.0pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 41.2pp
to 38.5pp.
-2.7pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.23
to 7.79.
-0.4 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.39
to 0.14.
+0.5 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.61
to 45.44.
+0.8 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.4
to -0.04.
-1.4 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG win prob home moved from 45.7pp
to 50.1pp.
+4.4pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Mon 8:16a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Spread away.
noted
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.8pp
to 87.4pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 63.6pp
to 58.6pp.
-5pp ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.0pp
to 59.6pp.
-3.4pp ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 40.0pp
to 37.2pp.
-2.8pp ▼
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Nov 7, 2022
BAL @ NO
/ 46 / +1
NO 13: BAL 27
7
TD, BAL
Sep 22, 2024
HOU @ MIN
/ 46 / +2
MIN 34: HOU 7
14
TD, MIN
Dec 18, 2022
NE @ LV
/ 45 / -1
LV 30: NE 24
3
FG, LV
Oct 9, 2023
GB @ LV
/ 45 / -1
LV 17: GB 13
3
FG, GB
Dec 1, 2024
LAC @ ATL
/ 47 / +1
ATL 13: LAC 17
10
TD, ATL
Nov 10, 2024
NYJ @ ARI
/ 45.5 / +2
ARI 31: NYJ 6
17
TD, ARI
Sep 22, 2024
KC @ ATL
/ 46 / +3
ATL 17: KC 22
7
TD, ATL
Dec 15, 2024
TB @ LAC
/ 46 / -3
LAC 17: TB 40
14
TD, TB
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 9.4
, opening drive scored 50%