Gold
FG ML away
Best number on this game is FG ML away, +9.6 against Pinnacle.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals ahead at the end of the quarter 41% of the time, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 37%, and the quarter level 22%, with 9.6 pts projected. Cincinnati Bengals gets on the board 68% of the time and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 66%; the opening drive ends in points 55% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 92% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
9.6
Pinnacle 10
CIN leads after Q1
41%
TB 37%, level 22%
TB scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
CIN scores in Q1
68%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
55%
league 42%
Game total (model)
47.0
Pinnacle 50
Similar games, Q1 scored
88%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against CIN’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Cincinnati Bengals scores in the 1st quarter
68%
Context only: its offence against TB’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
55%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
92%
Context only: scoreless the other 8%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
TB
37%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
CIN
41%
Cincinnati Bengals leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 68%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 43%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
TB
We give them a 45% chance,
+9.6 edge at +174
Game margin
CIN
−1.6
The book is at -4,
+6.2 edge on
TB
Total points in the game
47.0
The book is at 50,
we like the under, +9.4 edge
The model has Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning 45% of the time, +9.6 better than Pinnacle’s +174 implies. We project Cincinnati Bengals by 1.6 pts against a posted CIN -4, which puts the value on TB at +6.2. 47.0 pts projected in total against a posted 50: we like the under, +9.4.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
86%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
10
Open, 10
unchanged
Now, 10
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-154
▲ from
-169
Open, -169
moved +15
Now, -154
Q1 ML away
+134
▼ from
+146
Open, +146
moved -12
Now, +134
FG total
50
▼ from
51
Open, 51
moved -1
Now, 50
FG spread (H)
-4
▼ from
-3.5
Open, -3.5
moved -0.5
Now, -4
FG ML home
-200
▲ from
-214
Open, -214
moved +14
Now, -200
FG ML away
+174
▼ from
+185
Open, +185
moved -11
Now, +174
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model CIN 41% / tie 22% / TB 37% | (+134) | +109 | TB | +6.5 | Wager |
| 1st quarter total we project 9.6 pts | 10 (-121) | -114 | Under 10 | +0.5 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project CIN by 0.3 | -0.5 (+101) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model CIN 55% | (+174) | +122 | TB | +9.6 ★ | Gold |
| Spread model CIN -1.6 | -4 (-111) | -134 | TB +4 | +6.2 | Wager |
| Game total model 47.0 pts | 50 (-105) | -142 | Under 50 | +9.4 ★ | Gold |
Every change we made, and why
Fri 10:41a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 70.9pp
to 68.0pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.87
to 9.55.
+0.7 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.51
to 47.01.
+4.5 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.9
to -1.64.
-3.5 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG win prob home moved from 44.2pp
to 55.0pp.
+10.8pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML away.
noted
Fri 10:36a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 68.0pp
to 70.9pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.55
to 8.87.
-0.7 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.01
to 42.51.
-4.5 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.64
to 1.9.
+3.5 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG win prob home moved from 55.0pp
to 44.2pp.
-10.8pp ▼
Fri 9:10a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Clear.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 70.9pp
to 68.0pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.87
to 9.55.
+0.7 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.51
to 47.01.
+4.5 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.9
to -1.64.
-3.5 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG win prob home moved from 44.2pp
to 55.0pp.
+10.8pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML away.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 68.0pp
to 70.9pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.55
to 8.87.
-0.7 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.01
to 42.51.
-4.5 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.64
to 1.9.
+3.5 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG win prob home moved from 55.0pp
to 44.2pp.
-10.8pp ▼
Wed 8:54a ET
FG total (model) moved from 46.21
to 47.01.
+0.8 ▲
Wed 8:54a ET
Best edge moved from 11.7
to 9.76.
-1.9 ▼
Wed 8:54a ET
Temperature moved from 83.0°F
to 88.0°F.
+5°F ▲
Wed 8:54a ET
Top market changed from FG Total Under
to FG ML away.
noted
Wed 8:54a ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Wed 3:31a ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.01
to 46.21.
-0.8 ▼
Wed 3:31a ET
Best edge moved from 9.76
to 11.7.
+1.9 ▲
Wed 3:31a ET
Temperature moved from 88.0°F
to 83.0°F.
-5°F ▼
Wed 3:31a ET
Top market changed from FG ML away
to FG Total Under.
noted
Wed 3:31a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Tue 8:45p ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.61
to 47.01.
-0.6 ▼
Tue 5:40p ET
Temperature moved from 58.0°F
to 88.0°F.
+30°F ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 70.9pp
to 68.0pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.87
to 9.55.
+0.7 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.51
to 47.61.
+5.1 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.9
to -1.64.
-3.5 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG win prob home moved from 44.2pp
to 55.0pp.
+10.8pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Mon 8:16a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML away.
noted
Mon 8:11a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 68.0pp
to 70.9pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.55
to 8.87.
-0.7 ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.61
to 42.51.
-5.1 ▼
Mon 8:11a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.64
to 1.9.
+3.5 ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
FG win prob home moved from 55.0pp
to 44.2pp.
-10.8pp ▼
Sun 9:44p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.34
to -1.64.
-0.3 ▼
Sun 8:50a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 70.9pp
to 68.6pp.
-2.3pp ▼
Sun 8:50a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.6pp
to 42.2pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.8pp
to 36.2pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Sun 8:50a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.87
to 9.58.
+0.7 ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.08
to 0.58.
+0.5 ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.51
to 47.61.
+5.1 ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.9
to -1.34.
-3.2 ▼
Sun 8:50a ET
FG win prob home moved from 44.2pp
to 54.1pp.
+9.9pp ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Sun 8:50a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML away.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Dec 30, 2024
DET @ SF
/ 50.5 / +4
SF 34: DET 40
13
TD, SF
Oct 2, 2022
BUF @ BAL
/ 50 / +3
BAL 20: BUF 23
17
TD, BAL
Sep 17, 2023
KC @ JAX
/ 50.5 / +3.5
JAX 9: KC 17
0
scoreless
Nov 23, 2025
IND @ KC
/ 50.5 / -3.5
KC 23: IND 20
7
TD, IND
Oct 16, 2022
ARI @ SEA
/ 50 / +2.5
SEA 19: ARI 9
6
FG, ARI
Sep 14, 2025
JAX @ CIN
/ 49.5 / -3.5
CIN 31: JAX 27
14
TD, JAX
Sep 8, 2024
JAX @ MIA
/ 49.5 / -3.5
MIA 20: JAX 17
7
TD, JAX
Sep 25, 2022
KC @ IND
/ 51 / +4.5
IND 20: KC 17
13
TD, IND
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
88% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 9.6
, opening drive scored 38%