Wager
Q1 ML away
Best number on this game is Q1 ML away, +6.9 against Pinnacle.
The model has Jacksonville Jaguars ahead at the end of the quarter 48% of the time, Cleveland Browns 30%, and the quarter level 22%, with 7.7 pts projected. Jacksonville Jaguars gets on the board 67% of the time and Cleveland Browns 59%; the opening drive ends in points 35% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 90% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
7.7
Pinnacle 7
JAX leads after Q1
48%
CLE 30%, level 22%
CLE scores in Q1
59%
context only, no pick
JAX scores in Q1
67%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
35%
league 42%
Game total (model)
42.0
Pinnacle 40.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
88%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Cleveland Browns scores in the 1st quarter
59%
Context only: its offence against JAX’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Jacksonville Jaguars scores in the 1st quarter
67%
Context only: its offence against CLE’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
35%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
90%
Context only: scoreless the other 10%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
CLE
30%
Cleveland Browns leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 59%, context only
JAX
48%
Jacksonville Jaguars leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 67%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 36%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
CLE
We give them a 25% chance,
+2.0 edge at +325
Game margin
JAX
−8.9
The book is at -9.5,
+0.6 edge on
CLE
Total points in the game
42.0
The book is at 40.5,
we like the over, +5.8 edge
The model has Cleveland Browns winning 25% of the time, +2.0 better than Pinnacle’s +325 implies. We project Jacksonville Jaguars by 8.9 pts against a posted JAX -9.5, which puts the value on CLE at +0.6. 42.0 pts projected in total against a posted 40.5: we like the over, +5.8.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
29%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7
Open, 7
unchanged
Now, 7
Q1 spread (H)
-2.5
Open, -2.5
unchanged
Now, -2.5
Q1 ML home
-243
▼ from
-242
Open, -242
moved -1
Now, -243
Q1 ML away
+203
▲ from
+202
Open, +202
moved +1
Now, +203
FG total
40.5
Open, 40.5
unchanged
Now, 40.5
FG spread (H)
-9.5
▼ from
-7.5
Open, -7.5
moved -2
Now, -9.5
FG ML home
-403
▼ from
-386
Open, -386
moved -17
Now, -403
FG ML away
+325
▲ from
+313
Open, +313
moved +12
Now, +325
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model JAX 48% / tie 22% / CLE 30% | (+203) | +159 | CLE | +6.9 | Wager |
| 1st quarter total we project 7.7 pts | 7 (+113) | +121 | Under 7 | +0.1 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project JAX by 1.8 | -2.5 (-116) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model JAX 75% | (+325) | +304 | CLE | +2.0 | Lean |
| Spread model JAX -8.9 | -9.5 (-112) | -108 | CLE +9.5 | +0.6 | — |
| Game total model 42.0 pts | 40.5 (-102) | -119 | Over 40.5 | +5.8 | Wager |
Every change we made, and why
Fri 9:25p ET
Temperature moved from 90.0°F
to 95.0°F.
+5°F ▲
Fri 3:08p ET
Temperature moved from 99.0°F
to 90.0°F.
-9°F ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.6pp
to 89.8pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 69.5pp
to 66.9pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.5pp
to 59.1pp.
-4.4pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 42.4pp
to 48.1pp.
+5.7pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.0pp
to 30.3pp.
-5.7pp ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.67
to 7.67.
-1 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.61
to 1.75.
+1.1 ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.21
to 41.98.
-2.2 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -7.92
to -8.87.
-0.9 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG win prob home moved from 72.9pp
to 75.3pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.8pp
to 91.6pp.
+1.8pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 66.9pp
to 69.5pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 59.1pp
to 63.5pp.
+4.4pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 48.1pp
to 42.4pp.
-5.7pp ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 30.3pp
to 36.0pp.
+5.7pp ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.67
to 8.67.
+1 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 1.75
to 0.61.
-1.1 ▼
Fri 10:36a ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.98
to 44.21.
+2.2 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -8.87
to -7.92.
+0.9 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG win prob home moved from 75.3pp
to 72.9pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Thu 2:58p ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Thu 9:12a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Clear.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.6pp
to 89.8pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 69.5pp
to 66.9pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.5pp
to 59.1pp.
-4.4pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 42.4pp
to 48.1pp.
+5.7pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.0pp
to 30.3pp.
-5.7pp ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.67
to 7.67.
-1 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.61
to 1.75.
+1.1 ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.21
to 41.98.
-2.2 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -7.92
to -8.87.
-0.9 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG win prob home moved from 72.9pp
to 75.3pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.8pp
to 91.6pp.
+1.8pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 66.9pp
to 69.5pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 59.1pp
to 63.5pp.
+4.4pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 48.1pp
to 42.4pp.
-5.7pp ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 30.3pp
to 36.0pp.
+5.7pp ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.67
to 8.67.
+1 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 1.75
to 0.61.
-1.1 ▼
Thu 8:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.98
to 44.21.
+2.2 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -8.87
to -7.92.
+0.9 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG win prob home moved from 75.3pp
to 72.9pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Tue 5:40p ET
Temperature moved from 58.0°F
to 98.0°F.
+40°F ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.6pp
to 89.8pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 69.5pp
to 66.9pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.5pp
to 59.1pp.
-4.4pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 42.4pp
to 48.1pp.
+5.7pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.0pp
to 30.3pp.
-5.7pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.67
to 7.67.
-1 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.61
to 1.75.
+1.1 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.21
to 41.98.
-2.2 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -7.92
to -8.87.
-0.9 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG win prob home moved from 72.9pp
to 75.3pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Oct 2, 2022
NE @ GB
/ 40.5 / -10
GB 27: NE 24
3
FG, NE
Oct 24, 2022
CHI @ NE
/ 40 / -9.5
NE 14: CHI 33
10
FG, CHI
Dec 4, 2022
DEN @ BAL
/ 40.5 / -9.5
BAL 10: DEN 9
3
FG, DEN
Sep 18, 2022
SEA @ SF
/ 40 / -8.5
SF 27: SEA 7
6
FG, SF
Dec 4, 2023
CIN @ JAX
/ 41 / -10
JAX 31: CIN 34
7
TD, JAX
Sep 8, 2024
NE @ CIN
/ 40.5 / -8
CIN 10: NE 16
0
scoreless
Nov 10, 2024
NYG @ CAR
/ 40.5 / +6.5
CAR 20: NYG 17
7
TD, CAR
Sep 15, 2024
LV @ BAL
/ 41 / -9
BAL 23: LV 26
3
FG, BAL
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
88% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 4.9
, opening drive scored 38%