No Tier
No priced edge
No market on this game beats Pinnacle right now.
The model has Seattle Seahawks ahead at the end of the quarter 41% of the time, New England Patriots 37%, and the quarter level 22%, with 9.9 pts projected. Seattle Seahawks gets on the board 73% of the time and New England Patriots 64%; the opening drive ends in points 47% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 93% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. Pinnacle has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.
Q1 total (model)
9.9
not quoted
SEA leads after Q1
41%
NE 37%, level 22%
NE scores in Q1
64%
context only, no pick
SEA scores in Q1
73%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
47%
league 42%
Game total (model)
47.3
not quoted
Similar games, Q1 scored
88%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Pinnacle has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.
New England Patriots scores in the 1st quarter
64%
Context only: its offence against SEA’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Seattle Seahawks scores in the 1st quarter
73%
Context only: its offence against NE’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
47%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
93%
Context only: scoreless the other 7%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
NE
37%
New England Patriots leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 64%, context only
SEA
41%
Seattle Seahawks leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 73%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 44%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No Pinnacle moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.
Game margin
—
No Pinnacle spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.
Total points in the game
47.3
Unpriced, our projection only. Pinnacle posts no total on this game.
We project Seattle Seahawks by 1.1 pts. Pinnacle has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 47.3 pts projected in total, unpriced: Pinnacle has not posted a total. Pinnacle opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
57%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-141
▲ from
-149
Open, -149
moved +8
Now, -141
Q1 ML away
+123
▼ from
+129
Open, +129
moved -6
Now, +123
FG total
44
▼ from
44.5
Open, 44.5
moved -0.5
Now, 44
FG spread (H)
-3
▲ from
-3.5
Open, -3.5
moved +0.5
Now, -3
FG ML home
-171
▲ from
-181
Open, -181
moved +10
Now, -171
FG ML away
+153
▼ from
+159
Open, +159
moved -6
Now, +153
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model SEA 41% / tie 22% / NE 37% | — | -111 | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter total we project 9.9 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter margin we project SEA by 0.4 | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| Moneyline no Pinnacle market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Spread no Pinnacle market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Game total model 47.3 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
Every change we made, and why
Wed 6:27p ET
Best edge moved from 9.44
to 10.58.
+1.1 ▲
Wed 1:43p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.01
to 45.31.
+0.3 ▲
Wed 12:12p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.61
to 45.01.
-0.6 ▼
Tue 5:40p ET
Temperature moved from 58.0°F
to 77.0°F.
+19°F ▲
Tue 4:48p ET
Best edge moved from 7.91
to 9.13.
+1.2 ▲
Tue 9:28a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.55
to -2.25.
+0.3 ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.6pp
to 90.6pp.
-2pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 72.7pp
to 65.8pp.
-6.9pp ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.88
to 8.45.
-1.4 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.28
to 45.61.
-1.7 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.12
to -2.55.
-1.4 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG win prob home moved from 53.4pp
to 57.8pp.
+4.4pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Mon 8:16a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.6pp
to 92.6pp.
+2pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 72.7pp.
+6.9pp ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.45
to 9.88.
+1.4 ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.61
to 47.28.
+1.7 ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.55
to -1.12.
+1.4 ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
FG win prob home moved from 57.8pp
to 53.4pp.
-4.4pp ▼
Sun 10:27a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 68.0pp
to 65.8pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Sun 10:27a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.21
to 8.45.
-0.8 ▼
Sun 10:27a ET
Best edge moved from 4.38
to 8.14.
+3.8 ▲
Sun 10:27a ET
Tier changed from wager
to gold.
noted
Sun 10:27a ET
Top market changed from FG Total Over
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Sun 8:50a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.6pp
to 91.5pp.
-1.1pp ▼
Sun 8:50a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 72.7pp
to 68.0pp.
-4.7pp ▼
Sun 8:50a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.2pp
to 42.8pp.
+1.6pp ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 37.2pp
to 35.6pp.
-1.6pp ▼
Sun 8:50a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.88
to 9.21.
-0.7 ▼
Sun 8:50a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.38
to 0.7.
+0.3 ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.28
to 45.61.
-1.7 ▼
Sun 8:50a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.12
to -2.55.
-1.4 ▼
Sun 8:50a ET
FG win prob home moved from 53.4pp
to 57.8pp.
+4.4pp ▲
Sun 8:50a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Sun 8:50a ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Total Over.
noted
Sun 8:44a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.5pp
to 92.6pp.
+1.1pp ▲
Sun 8:44a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 68.0pp
to 72.7pp.
+4.7pp ▲
Sun 8:44a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 42.8pp
to 41.2pp.
-1.6pp ▼
Sun 8:44a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 35.6pp
to 37.2pp.
+1.6pp ▲
Sun 8:44a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.21
to 9.88.
+0.7 ▲
Sun 8:44a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.7
to 0.38.
-0.3 ▼
Sun 8:44a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.61
to 47.28.
+1.7 ▲
Sun 8:44a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.55
to -1.12.
+1.4 ▲
Sun 8:44a ET
FG win prob home moved from 57.8pp
to 53.4pp.
-4.4pp ▼
Sun 2:51a ET
Top market changed from FG ML away
to FG Total Over.
noted
Sat 4:31p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.6pp
to 91.5pp.
-1.1pp ▼
Sat 4:31p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 72.7pp
to 68.0pp.
-4.7pp ▼
Sat 4:31p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.2pp
to 42.8pp.
+1.6pp ▲
Sat 4:31p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 37.2pp
to 35.6pp.
-1.6pp ▼
Sat 4:31p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.88
to 9.21.
-0.7 ▼
Sat 4:31p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.38
to 0.7.
+0.3 ▲
Sat 4:31p ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.28
to 45.61.
-1.7 ▼
Sat 4:31p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.12
to -2.55.
-1.4 ▼
Sat 4:31p ET
FG win prob home moved from 53.4pp
to 57.8pp.
+4.4pp ▲
Sat 4:31p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Sat 4:31p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML away.
noted
Sat 4:26p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.5pp
to 92.6pp.
+1.1pp ▲
Sat 4:26p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 68.0pp
to 72.7pp.
+4.7pp ▲
Sat 4:26p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 42.8pp
to 41.2pp.
-1.6pp ▼
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Oct 9, 2022
LAC @ CLE
/ 47 / +1
CLE 28: LAC 30
17
TD, CLE
Oct 2, 2022
CLE @ ATL
/ 48 / +1
ATL 23: CLE 20
10
FG, ATL
Oct 2, 2022
KC @ TB
/ 46.5 / -1
TB 31: KC 41
17
TD, KC
Sep 10, 2023
CIN @ CLE
/ 46.5 / +1
CLE 24: CIN 3
0
scoreless
Nov 16, 2025
WAS @ MIA
/ 47.5 / -2.5
MIA 16: WAS 13
6
FG, MIA
Oct 27, 2024
CHI @ WAS
/ 46.5 / -1.5
WAS 18: CHI 15
6
FG, WAS
Nov 2, 2025
SEA @ WAS
/ 47.5 / +2.5
WAS 14: SEA 38
7
TD, SEA
Oct 12, 2025
SEA @ JAX
/ 47.5 / +1.5
JAX 12: SEA 20
6
TD, JAX
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
88% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 8.6
, opening drive scored 38%