Gold
Q1 ML away
Best number on this game is Q1 ML away, +9.1 against Pinnacle.
The model has Pittsburgh Steelers ahead at the end of the quarter 41% of the time, Atlanta Falcons 37%, and the quarter level 22%, with 7.9 pts projected. Pittsburgh Steelers gets on the board 64% of the time and Atlanta Falcons 63%; the opening drive ends in points 37% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 90% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
7.9
Pinnacle 7.5
PIT leads after Q1
41%
ATL 37%, level 22%
ATL scores in Q1
63%
context only, no pick
PIT scores in Q1
64%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
37%
league 42%
Game total (model)
42.0
Pinnacle 41
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Atlanta Falcons scores in the 1st quarter
63%
Context only: its offence against PIT’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Pittsburgh Steelers scores in the 1st quarter
64%
Context only: its offence against ATL’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
37%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
90%
Context only: scoreless the other 10%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
ATL
37%
Atlanta Falcons leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 63%, context only
PIT
41%
Pittsburgh Steelers leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 64%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 37%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
ATL
We give them a 38% chance,
+8.0 edge at +227
Game margin
PIT
−4.1
The book is at -6,
+5.8 edge on
ATL
Total points in the game
42.0
The book is at 41,
we like the over, +3.0 edge
The model has Atlanta Falcons winning 38% of the time, +8.0 better than Pinnacle’s +227 implies. We project Pittsburgh Steelers by 4.1 pts against a posted PIT -6, which puts the value on ATL at +5.8. 42.0 pts projected in total against a posted 41: we like the over, +3.0.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
88%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-174
▼ from
-155
Open, -155
moved -19
Now, -174
Q1 ML away
+150
▲ from
+134
Open, +134
moved +16
Now, +150
FG total
41
▼ from
41.5
Open, 41.5
moved -0.5
Now, 41
FG spread (H)
-6
▼ from
-3
Open, -3
moved -3
Now, -6
FG ML home
-269
▼ from
-170
Open, -170
moved -99
Now, -269
FG ML away
+227
▲ from
+150
Open, +150
moved +77
Now, +227
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Pinnacle | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model PIT 41% / tie 22% / ATL 37% | (+150) | +109 | ATL | +9.1 ★ | Gold |
| 1st quarter total we project 7.9 pts | 7.5 (+110) | -113 | Over 7.5 | +7.2 ★ | Gold |
| 1st quarter margin we project PIT by 0.3 | -0.5 (+103) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model PIT 62% | (+227) | +166 | ATL | +8.0 ★ | Gold |
| Spread model PIT -4.1 | -6 (-106) | -126 | ATL +6 | +5.8 | Wager |
| Game total model 42.0 pts | 41 (-108) | -113 | Over 41 | +3.0 | Lean |
Every change we made, and why
Fri 9:25p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Fri 4:33p ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.33
to 42.03.
-0.3 ▼
Fri 4:33p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.52
to -4.12.
-0.6 ▼
Fri 4:33p ET
FG win prob home moved from 60.7pp
to 62.4pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Fri 12:48p ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.93
to 42.33.
-0.6 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.57
to 7.93.
-0.6 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.58
to 42.93.
-0.7 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.29
to -3.52.
-2.2 ▼
Fri 10:41a ET
FG win prob home moved from 54.0pp
to 60.7pp.
+6.7pp ▲
Fri 10:41a ET
Tier changed from —
to gold.
noted
Fri 10:41a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Fri 10:36a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.93
to 8.57.
+0.6 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.93
to 43.58.
+0.7 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.52
to -1.29.
+2.2 ▲
Fri 10:36a ET
FG win prob home moved from 60.7pp
to 54.0pp.
-6.7pp ▼
Fri 3:06a ET
Temperature moved from 82.0°F
to 75.0°F.
-7°F ▼
Thu 11:38p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.62
to -3.52.
-0.9 ▼
Thu 11:38p ET
FG win prob home moved from 58.0pp
to 60.7pp.
+2.7pp ▲
Thu 11:38p ET
Top market changed from FG ML away
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Thu 5:49p ET
Best edge moved from 9.65
to 8.62.
-1.0 ▼
Thu 5:49p ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML away
to FG ML away.
noted
Thu 2:02p ET
Tier changed from wager
to gold.
noted
Thu 11:35a ET
Top market changed from Q1 Total Over
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.57
to 7.93.
-0.6 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.58
to 42.93.
-0.7 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.29
to -2.62.
-1.3 ▼
Thu 8:22a ET
FG win prob home moved from 54.0pp
to 58.0pp.
+4pp ▲
Thu 8:22a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 8:22a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Thu 8:17a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.93
to 8.57.
+0.6 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.93
to 43.58.
+0.7 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.62
to -1.29.
+1.3 ▲
Thu 8:17a ET
FG win prob home moved from 58.0pp
to 54.0pp.
-4pp ▼
Thu 3:08a ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Wed 2:59p ET
Temperature moved from 79.0°F
to 84.0°F.
+5°F ▲
Wed 2:59p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Wed 8:54a ET
Temperature moved from 85.0°F
to 79.0°F.
-6°F ▼
Wed 3:31a ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.13
to 42.93.
+0.8 ▲
Wed 3:31a ET
Temperature moved from 79.0°F
to 85.0°F.
+6°F ▲
Wed 3:31a ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Tue 9:46p ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.93
to 42.13.
-0.8 ▼
Tue 9:46p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Tue 5:40p ET
Temperature moved from 58.0°F
to 79.0°F.
+21°F ▲
Tue 5:40p ET
Wind moved from 6.0mph
to 1.0mph.
-5mph ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.57
to 7.93.
-0.6 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.58
to 42.93.
-0.7 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.29
to -2.62.
-1.3 ▼
Mon 8:16a ET
FG win prob home moved from 54.0pp
to 58.0pp.
+4pp ▲
Mon 8:16a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Mon 8:16a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Mon 8:11a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.93
to 8.57.
+0.6 ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.93
to 43.58.
+0.7 ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.62
to -1.29.
+1.3 ▲
Mon 8:11a ET
FG win prob home moved from 58.0pp
to 54.0pp.
-4pp ▼
Sun 10:14p ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML away
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Sun 9:57p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.32
to -2.62.
-0.3 ▼
Sun 9:44p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.9pp
to 64.3pp.
-1.6pp ▼
Sun 9:44p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.45
to 7.93.
-0.5 ▼
Sun 9:44p ET
Best edge moved from 5.22
to 6.49.
+1.3 ▲
Sun 9:44p ET
Top market changed from FG Spread away
to Q1 ML away.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 22, 2024
DEN @ TB
/ 40.5 / -6
TB 7: DEN 26
14
TD, DEN
Nov 17, 2024
GB @ CHI
/ 41 / +6
CHI 19: GB 20
10
TD, GB
Nov 10, 2024
NYG @ CAR
/ 40.5 / +6.5
CAR 20: NYG 17
7
TD, CAR
Dec 14, 2025
LAC @ KC
/ 41.5 / -5.5
KC 13: LAC 16
10
TD, KC
Dec 3, 2023
ARI @ PIT
/ 41 / -6
PIT 10: ARI 24
6
FG, PIT
Sep 14, 2025
LA @ TEN
/ 41.5 / +5.5
TEN 19: LA 33
7
TD, LA
Oct 9, 2022
SF @ CAR
/ 40 / +6
CAR 15: SF 37
7
TD, SF
Nov 30, 2025
NO @ MIA
/ 41.5 / -5.5
MIA 21: NO 17
7
TD, MIA
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 8.5
, opening drive scored 75%