No Tier
No priced edge
No market on this game beats the sharp line right now.
The model has Tennessee Titans ahead at the end of the quarter 39% of the time, Cleveland Browns 39%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.7 pts projected. Tennessee Titans gets on the board 66% of the time and Cleveland Browns 66%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 91% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. The sharp line has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.
Q1 total (model)
8.7
not quoted
TEN leads after Q1
39%
CLE 39%, level 22%
CLE scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
TEN scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
41.8
not quoted
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
The sharp line has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.
Cleveland Browns scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against TEN’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Tennessee Titans scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against CLE’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
91%
Context only: scoreless the other 9%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
CLE
39%
Cleveland Browns leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
TEN
39%
Tennessee Titans leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 40%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No sharp-line moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.
Game margin
—
No sharp-line spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.
Total points in the game
41.8
Unpriced, our projection only. The sharp line posts no total on this game.
We project Tennessee Titans by 0.2 pts. The sharp line has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 41.8 pts projected in total, unpriced: the sharp line has not posted a total. The sharp line opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
50%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7
Open, 7
unchanged
Now, 7
Q1 spread (H)
0.5
Open, 0.5
unchanged
Now, 0.5
Q1 ML home
+102
▲ from
-101
Open, -101
moved +203
Now, +102
Q1 ML away
-116
▼ from
-113
Open, -113
moved -3
Now, -116
FG total
37
▼ from
38
Open, 38
moved -1
Now, 37
FG spread (H)
1.5
Open, 1.5
unchanged
Now, 1.5
FG ML home
+111
▼ from
+112
Open, +112
moved -1
Now, +111
FG ML away
-123
▲ from
-126
Open, -126
moved +3
Now, -123
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model TEN 39% / tie 22% / CLE 39% | — | +100 | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.7 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter margin we project TEN by 0.0 | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| Moneyline no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Spread no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Game total model 41.8 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
Every change we made, and why
Sun 12:35p ET
Top market changed from FG Total Under
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Sun 10:19a ET
Tier changed from neutral
to lean.
noted
Sun 10:19a ET
Top market changed from FG Spread home
to FG Total Under.
noted
Sun 10:09a ET
Temperature moved from 68.0°F
to 63.0°F.
-5°F ▼
Sun 10:09a ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Sun 8:18a ET
Top market changed from FG Total Under
to FG Spread home.
noted
Sun 7:08a ET
Temperature moved from 76.0°F
to 67.0°F.
-9°F ▼
Sun 5:47a ET
Top market changed from Q1 Total Over
to FG Total Under.
noted
Sat 10:14p ET
Tier changed from lean
to neutral.
noted
Sat 10:14p ET
Top market changed from FG Spread home
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Sat 8:28p ET
Top market changed from Q1 Total Over
to FG Spread home.
noted
Fri 9:32p ET
Top market changed from FG Spread home
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.1pp
to 88.9pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 60.5pp.
-5.1pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 62.7pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.2pp
to 36.7pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.2pp
to 41.7pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.69
to 7.06.
-1.6 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.0
to -0.48.
-0.5 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.76
to 36.49.
-5.3 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -0.2
to 1.47.
+1.7 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG win prob home moved from 50.6pp
to 45.5pp.
-5.1pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Spread home.
noted
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 88.9pp
to 91.1pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 60.5pp
to 65.6pp.
+5.1pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 62.7pp
to 65.6pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 36.7pp
to 39.2pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 41.7pp
to 39.2pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.06
to 8.69.
+1.6 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.48
to 0.0.
+0.5 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG total (model) moved from 36.49
to 41.76.
+5.3 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.47
to -0.2.
-1.7 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG win prob home moved from 45.5pp
to 50.6pp.
+5.1pp ▲
Fri 3:59p ET
Top market changed from FG Total Under
to FG Spread home.
noted
Fri 4:44a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Clear.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.1pp
to 88.9pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 60.5pp.
-5.1pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 62.7pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.2pp
to 36.7pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.2pp
to 41.7pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.69
to 7.06.
-1.6 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.0
to -0.48.
-0.5 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.76
to 36.49.
-5.3 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -0.2
to 1.47.
+1.7 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
FG win prob home moved from 50.6pp
to 45.5pp.
-5.1pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Total Under.
noted
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 88.9pp
to 91.1pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 60.5pp
to 65.6pp.
+5.1pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 62.7pp
to 65.6pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 36.7pp
to 39.2pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 41.7pp
to 39.2pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.06
to 8.69.
+1.6 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.48
to 0.0.
+0.5 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
FG total (model) moved from 36.49
to 41.76.
+5.3 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 1.47
to -0.2.
-1.7 ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
FG win prob home moved from 45.5pp
to 50.6pp.
+5.1pp ▲
Thu 4:34p ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.1pp
to 88.9pp.
-2.2pp ▼
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Oct 3, 2022
LA @ SF
/ 42 / -1
SF 24: LA 9
10
FG, LA
Nov 12, 2023
IND @ NE
/ 42 / +1
NE 6: IND 10
10
FG, NE
Sep 25, 2022
GB @ TB
/ 41.5 / -1
TB 12: GB 14
10
FG, TB
Sep 10, 2023
SF @ PIT
/ 41.5 / +1.5
PIT 7: SF 30
10
TD, SF
Oct 16, 2022
JAX @ IND
/ 41 / -1
IND 34: JAX 27
7
TD, JAX
Oct 30, 2022
DEN @ JAX
/ 41 / -1
JAX 17: DEN 21
7
TD, JAX
Sep 10, 2023
GB @ CHI
/ 41 / -1
CHI 20: GB 38
10
TD, GB
Jan 1, 2023
CLE @ WAS
/ 41.5 / -1
WAS 10: CLE 24
3
FG, CLE
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 8.4
, opening drive scored 38%