No Tier
No priced edge
No market on this game beats the sharp line right now.
The model has New Orleans Saints ahead at the end of the quarter 38% of the time, Pittsburgh Steelers 40%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.6 pts projected. New Orleans Saints gets on the board 64% of the time and Pittsburgh Steelers 66%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 91% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. The sharp line has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.
Q1 total (model)
8.6
not quoted
NO leads after Q1
38%
PIT 40%, level 22%
PIT scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
NO scores in Q1
64%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
43.6
not quoted
Similar games, Q1 scored
75%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
The sharp line has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.
Pittsburgh Steelers scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against NO’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
New Orleans Saints scores in the 1st quarter
64%
Context only: its offence against PIT’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
91%
Context only: scoreless the other 9%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
PIT
40%
Pittsburgh Steelers leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
NO
38%
New Orleans Saints leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 64%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 40%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No sharp-line moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.
Game margin
—
No sharp-line spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.
Total points in the game
43.6
Unpriced, our projection only. The sharp line posts no total on this game.
We project New Orleans Saints by 0.6 pts. The sharp line has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 43.6 pts projected in total, unpriced: the sharp line has not posted a total. The sharp line opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
50%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
0.5
Open, 0.5
unchanged
Now, 0.5
Q1 ML home
+114
▼ from
+120
Open, +120
moved -6
Now, +114
Q1 ML away
-130
▲ from
-138
Open, -138
moved +8
Now, -130
FG total
43.5
▼ from
44
Open, 44
moved -0.5
Now, 43.5
FG spread (H)
3
▼ from
3.5
Open, 3.5
moved -0.5
Now, 3
FG ML home
+139
▼ from
+155
Open, +155
moved -16
Now, +139
FG ML away
-154
▲ from
-177
Open, -177
moved +23
Now, -154
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model NO 38% / tie 22% / PIT 40% | — | +107 | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.6 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter margin we project PIT by 0.2 | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| Moneyline no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Spread no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Game total model 43.6 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
Every change we made, and why
Sun 9:29a ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.4
to 43.34.
+0.9 ▲
Sun 9:29a ET
Top market changed from FG Total Under
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Sun 12:25a ET
Top market changed from Q1 Total Over
to FG Total Under.
noted
Sun 12:10a ET
Top market changed from FG ML home
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Sat 11:55p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.34
to 42.4.
-0.9 ▼
Sat 9:39p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 89.5pp.
-1.5pp ▼
Sat 9:39p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.4pp
to 61.3pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Sat 9:39p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.3pp
to 63.9pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Sat 9:39p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.9pp
to 36.2pp.
-1.7pp ▼
Sat 9:39p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.5pp
to 42.2pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Sat 9:39p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.62
to 7.51.
-1.1 ▼
Sat 9:39p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.25
to -0.58.
-0.3 ▼
Sat 9:39p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -0.62
to 2.52.
+3.1 ▲
Sat 9:39p ET
FG win prob home moved from 51.9pp
to 42.2pp.
-9.7pp ▼
Sat 9:39p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Sat 9:39p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML home.
noted
Sat 9:23p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.5pp
to 91.0pp.
+1.5pp ▲
Sat 9:23p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 61.3pp
to 64.4pp.
+3.1pp ▲
Sat 9:23p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.9pp
to 66.3pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Sat 9:23p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 36.2pp
to 37.9pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Sat 9:23p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 42.2pp
to 40.5pp.
-1.7pp ▼
Sat 9:23p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.51
to 8.62.
+1.1 ▲
Sat 9:23p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.58
to -0.25.
+0.3 ▲
Sat 9:23p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 2.52
to -0.62.
-3.1 ▼
Sat 9:23p ET
FG win prob home moved from 42.2pp
to 51.9pp.
+9.7pp ▲
Sat 7:53p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.29
to 43.34.
-0.9 ▼
Sat 8:32a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 2.92
to 2.52.
-0.4 ▼
Sat 8:32a ET
Top market changed from FG Spread away
to FG ML home.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 89.5pp.
-1.5pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.4pp
to 61.3pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.3pp
to 63.9pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.9pp
to 36.2pp.
-1.7pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.5pp
to 42.2pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.62
to 7.51.
-1.1 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.25
to -0.58.
-0.3 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.59
to 44.29.
+0.7 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -0.62
to 2.92.
+3.5 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG win prob home moved from 51.9pp
to 41.0pp.
-10.9pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG Spread away.
noted
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.5pp
to 91.0pp.
+1.5pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 61.3pp
to 64.4pp.
+3.1pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.9pp
to 66.3pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 36.2pp
to 37.9pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 42.2pp
to 40.5pp.
-1.7pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.51
to 8.62.
+1.1 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.58
to -0.25.
+0.3 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.29
to 43.59.
-0.7 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 2.92
to -0.62.
-3.5 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG win prob home moved from 41.0pp
to 51.9pp.
+10.9pp ▲
Fri 8:47p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 89.5pp.
-1.5pp ▼
Fri 8:47p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.4pp
to 61.3pp.
-3.1pp ▼
Fri 8:47p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.3pp
to 63.9pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Fri 8:47p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 37.9pp
to 36.2pp.
-1.7pp ▼
Fri 8:47p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 40.5pp
to 42.2pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Fri 8:47p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.62
to 7.51.
-1.1 ▼
Fri 8:47p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.25
to -0.58.
-0.3 ▼
Fri 8:47p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.59
to 44.29.
+0.7 ▲
Fri 8:47p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -0.62
to 2.92.
+3.5 ▲
Fri 8:47p ET
FG win prob home moved from 51.9pp
to 41.0pp.
-10.9pp ▼
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 25, 2025
SEA @ ARI
/ 43.5 / +1.5
ARI 20: SEA 23
10
FG, ARI
Dec 7, 2025
WAS @ MIN
/ 43.5 / +1.5
MIN 31: WAS 0
7
TD, MIN
Oct 21, 2024
LAC @ ARI
/ 44 / +1
ARI 17: LAC 15
0
scoreless
Nov 17, 2024
CLE @ NO
/ 44 / +1
NO 35: CLE 14
13
TD, NO
Dec 4, 2022
PIT @ ATL
/ 43 / +1
ATL 16: PIT 19
3
FG, PIT
Oct 29, 2023
NO @ IND
/ 43.5 / +2
IND 27: NO 38
14
TD, IND
Nov 12, 2023
ATL @ ARI
/ 43.5 / +2
ARI 25: ATL 23
3
FG, ARI
Sep 22, 2024
CHI @ IND
/ 43 / -1.5
IND 21: CHI 16
0
scoreless
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
75% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 6.2
, opening drive scored 25%