No Tier
No priced edge
No market on this game beats the sharp line right now.
The model has Detroit Lions ahead at the end of the quarter 39% of the time, Green Bay Packers 40%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.7 pts projected. Detroit Lions gets on the board 65% of the time and Green Bay Packers 65%; the opening drive ends in points 43% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 91% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. The sharp line has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.
Q1 total (model)
8.7
not quoted
DET leads after Q1
39%
GB 40%, level 22%
GB scores in Q1
65%
context only, no pick
DET scores in Q1
65%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
43%
league 42%
Game total (model)
45.3
not quoted
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
The sharp line has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.
Green Bay Packers scores in the 1st quarter
65%
Context only: its offence against DET’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Detroit Lions scores in the 1st quarter
65%
Context only: its offence against GB’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
43%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
91%
Context only: scoreless the other 9%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
GB
40%
Green Bay Packers leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 65%, context only
DET
39%
Detroit Lions leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 65%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 39%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No sharp-line moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.
Game margin
—
No sharp-line spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.
Total points in the game
45.3
Unpriced, our projection only. The sharp line posts no total on this game.
We project Detroit Lions by 1.2 pts. The sharp line has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 45.3 pts projected in total, unpriced: the sharp line has not posted a total. The sharp line opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
50%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
10
Open, 10
unchanged
Now, 10
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-171
▼ from
-155
Open, -155
moved -16
Now, -171
Q1 ML away
+147
▲ from
+134
Open, +134
moved +13
Now, +147
FG total
55.5
▲ from
53.5
Open, 53.5
moved +2
Now, 55.5
FG spread (H)
-3.5
▼ from
-3
Open, -3
moved -0.5
Now, -3.5
FG ML home
-204
▼ from
-179
Open, -179
moved -25
Now, -204
FG ML away
+181
▲ from
+156
Open, +156
moved +25
Now, +181
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model DET 39% / tie 22% / GB 40% | — | +102 | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.7 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter margin we project GB by 0.1 | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| Moneyline no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Spread no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Game total model 45.3 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
Every change we made, and why
Sat 9:49p ET
FG total (model) moved from 54.39
to 55.33.
+0.9 ▲
Sat 9:49p ET
Best edge moved from 6.4
to 7.4.
+1 ▲
Sat 9:49p ET
Tier changed from wager
to gold.
noted
Sat 6:32p ET
FG total (model) moved from 53.45
to 54.39.
+0.9 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.8pp
to 92.4pp.
+1.6pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.6pp
to 69.2pp.
+4.6pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.4pp
to 67.1pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.8pp
to 41.6pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.6pp
to 36.8pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.73
to 9.97.
+1.2 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.08
to 0.46.
+0.5 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.34
to 53.45.
+8.1 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.21
to -3.0.
-1.8 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG win prob home moved from 53.8pp
to 59.2pp.
+5.4pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.4pp
to 90.8pp.
-1.6pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 69.2pp
to 64.6pp.
-4.6pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 67.1pp
to 65.4pp.
-1.7pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.6pp
to 38.8pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.8pp
to 39.6pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.97
to 8.73.
-1.2 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.46
to -0.08.
-0.5 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG total (model) moved from 53.45
to 45.34.
-8.1 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.0
to -1.21.
+1.8 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG win prob home moved from 59.2pp
to 53.8pp.
-5.4pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.8pp
to 92.4pp.
+1.6pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.6pp
to 69.2pp.
+4.6pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.4pp
to 67.1pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.8pp
to 41.6pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.6pp
to 36.8pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.73
to 9.97.
+1.2 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.08
to 0.46.
+0.5 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.34
to 53.45.
+8.1 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.21
to -3.0.
-1.8 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
FG win prob home moved from 53.8pp
to 59.2pp.
+5.4pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.4pp
to 90.8pp.
-1.6pp ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 69.2pp
to 64.6pp.
-4.6pp ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 67.1pp
to 65.4pp.
-1.7pp ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.6pp
to 38.8pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.8pp
to 39.6pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.97
to 8.73.
-1.2 ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.46
to -0.08.
-0.5 ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
FG total (model) moved from 53.45
to 45.34.
-8.1 ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.0
to -1.21.
+1.8 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
FG win prob home moved from 59.2pp
to 53.8pp.
-5.4pp ▼
Thu 6:40p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.6
to -3.0.
-0.4 ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 90.8pp
to 92.4pp.
+1.6pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.6pp
to 69.2pp.
+4.6pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.4pp
to 67.1pp.
+1.7pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.8pp
to 41.6pp.
+2.8pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.6pp
to 36.8pp.
-2.8pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.73
to 9.97.
+1.2 ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.08
to 0.46.
+0.5 ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.34
to 53.45.
+8.1 ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.21
to -2.6.
-1.4 ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
FG win prob home moved from 53.8pp
to 58.0pp.
+4.2pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Dec 18, 2022
NE @ LV
/ 45 / -1
LV 30: NE 24
3
FG, LV
Oct 9, 2023
GB @ LV
/ 45 / -1
LV 17: GB 13
3
FG, GB
Nov 10, 2024
NYJ @ ARI
/ 45.5 / +2
ARI 31: NYJ 6
17
TD, ARI
Nov 7, 2022
BAL @ NO
/ 46 / +1
NO 13: BAL 27
7
TD, BAL
Oct 2, 2022
DEN @ LV
/ 45.5 / -2.5
LV 32: DEN 23
10
FG, LV
Sep 21, 2025
DEN @ LAC
/ 45.5 / -2.5
LAC 23: DEN 20
3
FG, LAC
Nov 3, 2024
CHI @ ARI
/ 44.5 / -1.5
ARI 29: CHI 9
7
TD, ARI
Nov 19, 2023
SEA @ LA
/ 45 / -2.5
LA 17: SEA 16
7
TD, SEA
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 7.1
, opening drive scored 50%