No Tier
No priced edge
No market on this game beats the sharp line right now.
The model has Baltimore Ravens ahead at the end of the quarter 39% of the time, Cincinnati Bengals 39%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.7 pts projected. Baltimore Ravens gets on the board 66% of the time and Cincinnati Bengals 66%; the opening drive ends in points 43% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 91% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. The sharp line has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.
Q1 total (model)
8.7
not quoted
BAL leads after Q1
39%
CIN 39%, level 22%
CIN scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
BAL scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
43%
league 42%
Game total (model)
43.7
not quoted
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
The sharp line has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.
Cincinnati Bengals scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against BAL’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Baltimore Ravens scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against CIN’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
43%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
91%
Context only: scoreless the other 9%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
CIN
39%
Cincinnati Bengals leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
BAL
39%
Baltimore Ravens leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 40%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No sharp-line moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.
Game margin
—
No sharp-line spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.
Total points in the game
43.7
Unpriced, our projection only. The sharp line posts no total on this game.
We project Baltimore Ravens by 3.5 pts. The sharp line has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 43.7 pts projected in total, unpriced: the sharp line has not posted a total. The sharp line opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
62%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
10
Open, 10
unchanged
Now, 10
Q1 spread (H)
0.5
▲ from
-0.5
Open, -0.5
moved +1
Now, 0.5
Q1 ML home
+112
▲ from
-134
Open, -134
moved +246
Now, +112
Q1 ML away
-128
▼ from
+117
Open, +117
moved -245
Now, -128
FG total
46
▼ from
51
Open, 51
moved -5
Now, 46
FG spread (H)
3
▲ from
-2.5
Open, -2.5
moved +5.5
Now, 3
FG ML home
+145
▲ from
-146
Open, -146
moved +291
Now, +145
FG ML away
-161
▼ from
+129
Open, +129
moved -290
Now, -161
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model BAL 39% / tie 22% / CIN 39% | — | -101 | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.7 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter margin we project BAL by 0.0 | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| Moneyline no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Spread no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Game total model 43.7 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
Every change we made, and why
Sun 12:10p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Clear.
noted
Sun 10:09a ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Sun 7:08a ET
Temperature moved from 66.0°F
to 58.0°F.
-8°F ▼
Sat 8:58p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.97
to 1.38.
+0.4 ▲
Sat 6:27p ET
FG total (model) moved from 47.18
to 45.76.
-1.4 ▼
Sat 3:41p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -0.25
to 0.97.
+1.2 ▲
Sat 3:41p ET
FG win prob home moved from 50.8pp
to 47.0pp.
-3.8pp ▼
Sat 3:10p ET
FG total (model) moved from 48.59
to 47.18.
-1.4 ▼
Sat 10:13a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 69.3pp
to 67.2pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Sat 10:13a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 67.0pp
to 69.2pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Sat 10:13a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.9pp
to 36.8pp.
-5.1pp ▼
Sat 10:13a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.6pp
to 41.6pp.
+5pp ▲
Sat 10:13a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.51
to -0.46.
-1.0 ▼
Fri 10:08p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.28
to -0.25.
+2.0 ▲
Fri 10:08p ET
FG win prob home moved from 57.0pp
to 50.8pp.
-6.2pp ▼
Fri 9:52p ET
Temperature moved from 63.0°F
to 68.0°F.
+5°F ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.1pp
to 92.4pp.
+1.3pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 69.3pp.
+3.7pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.4pp
to 41.9pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.0pp
to 36.6pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.74
to 9.98.
+1.2 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.04
to 0.51.
+0.5 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.76
to 48.59.
+4.8 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.47
to -2.28.
+1.2 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG win prob home moved from 60.6pp
to 57.0pp.
-3.6pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.4pp
to 91.1pp.
-1.3pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 69.3pp
to 65.6pp.
-3.7pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.9pp
to 39.4pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.6pp
to 39.0pp.
+2.4pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.98
to 8.74.
-1.2 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.51
to 0.04.
-0.5 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG total (model) moved from 48.59
to 43.76.
-4.8 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.28
to -3.47.
-1.2 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG win prob home moved from 57.0pp
to 60.6pp.
+3.6pp ▲
Fri 6:05p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 67.2pp
to 69.3pp.
+2.1pp ▲
Fri 6:05p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 69.2pp
to 67.0pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Fri 6:05p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 36.8pp
to 41.9pp.
+5.1pp ▲
Fri 6:05p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 41.6pp
to 36.6pp.
-5pp ▼
Fri 6:05p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.46
to 0.51.
+1.0 ▲
Fri 5:20p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 69.3pp
to 67.2pp.
-2.1pp ▼
Fri 5:20p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 67.0pp
to 69.2pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Fri 5:20p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.9pp
to 36.8pp.
-5.1pp ▼
Fri 5:20p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.6pp
to 41.6pp.
+5pp ▲
Fri 5:20p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.51
to -0.46.
-1.0 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.1pp
to 92.4pp.
+1.3pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 69.3pp.
+3.7pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.4pp
to 41.9pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.0pp
to 36.6pp.
-2.4pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.74
to 9.98.
+1.2 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.04
to 0.51.
+0.5 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.76
to 48.59.
+4.8 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.47
to -2.28.
+1.2 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
FG win prob home moved from 60.6pp
to 57.0pp.
-3.6pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.4pp
to 91.1pp.
-1.3pp ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 69.3pp
to 65.6pp.
-3.7pp ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.9pp
to 39.4pp.
-2.5pp ▼
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 11, 2022
JAX @ WAS
/ 43.5 / -3
WAS 28: JAX 22
10
FG, JAX
Sep 18, 2022
IND @ JAX
/ 43.5 / +3
JAX 24: IND 0
7
TD, JAX
Sep 18, 2022
MIA @ BAL
/ 44 / -3
BAL 38: MIA 42
7
TD, BAL
Oct 23, 2022
NYG @ JAX
/ 44 / -3
JAX 17: NYG 23
15
TD, NYG
Oct 15, 2023
IND @ JAX
/ 44 / -4
JAX 37: IND 20
3
FG, IND
Jan 3, 2026
CAR @ TB
/ 43.5 / -3
TB 16: CAR 14
10
TD, TB
Nov 6, 2022
MIN @ WAS
/ 43.5 / +3
WAS 17: MIN 20
7
TD, MIN
Nov 16, 2025
LAC @ JAX
/ 43.5 / +3
JAX 35: LAC 6
10
FG, LAC
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 8.6
, opening drive scored 75%