No Tier
No priced edge
No market on this game beats the sharp line right now.
The model has Seattle Seahawks ahead at the end of the quarter 40% of the time, Kansas City Chiefs 39%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.8 pts projected. Seattle Seahawks gets on the board 66% of the time and Kansas City Chiefs 65%; the opening drive ends in points 41% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 91% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. The sharp line has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.
Q1 total (model)
8.8
not quoted
SEA leads after Q1
40%
KC 39%, level 22%
KC scores in Q1
65%
context only, no pick
SEA scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
41%
league 42%
Game total (model)
45.1
not quoted
Similar games, Q1 scored
50%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
The sharp line has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.
Kansas City Chiefs scores in the 1st quarter
65%
Context only: its offence against SEA’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Seattle Seahawks scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against KC’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
41%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
91%
Context only: scoreless the other 9%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
KC
39%
Kansas City Chiefs leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 65%, context only
SEA
40%
Seattle Seahawks leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 40%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No sharp-line moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.
Game margin
—
No sharp-line spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.
Total points in the game
45.1
Unpriced, our projection only. The sharp line posts no total on this game.
We project Seattle Seahawks by 2.8 pts. The sharp line has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 45.1 pts projected in total, unpriced: the sharp line has not posted a total. The sharp line opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
50%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-141
▼ from
-133
Open, -133
moved -8
Now, -141
Q1 ML away
+123
▲ from
+115
Open, +115
moved +8
Now, +123
FG total
43
▲ from
42
Open, 42
moved +1
Now, 43
FG spread (H)
-3
▼ from
-2.5
Open, -2.5
moved -0.5
Now, -3
FG ML home
-150
▼ from
-142
Open, -142
moved -8
Now, -150
FG ML away
+135
▲ from
+126
Open, +126
moved +9
Now, +135
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model SEA 40% / tie 22% / KC 39% | — | -103 | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.8 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter margin we project SEA by 0.1 | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| Moneyline no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Spread no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Game total model 45.1 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
Every change we made, and why
Sun 7:52p ET
Top market changed from Q1 Total Over
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Sun 5:52p ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.52
to 43.46.
+0.9 ▲
Sun 5:07a ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Sat 9:03p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Sat 8:28p ET
Tier changed from wager
to lean.
noted
Fri 10:18p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.82
to -3.22.
-0.4 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 89.6pp.
-1.4pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 64.0pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.0pp
to 61.6pp.
-3.4pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.8pp
to 42.0pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.6pp
to 36.4pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.77
to 7.57.
-1.2 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.12
to 0.54.
+0.4 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.07
to 42.52.
-2.5 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.6pp
to 91.0pp.
+1.4pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.0pp
to 65.8pp.
+1.8pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 61.6pp
to 65.0pp.
+3.4pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 42.0pp
to 39.8pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.4pp
to 38.6pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.57
to 8.77.
+1.2 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.54
to 0.12.
-0.4 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.52
to 45.07.
+2.5 ▲
Fri 5:00p ET
Tier changed from lean
to wager.
noted
Fri 4:50p ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.72
to 42.52.
+0.8 ▲
Fri 4:50p ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Fri 4:44a ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.52
to 41.72.
-0.8 ▼
Fri 4:44a ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 89.6pp.
-1.4pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 64.0pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.0pp
to 61.6pp.
-3.4pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.8pp
to 42.0pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.6pp
to 36.4pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.77
to 7.57.
-1.2 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.12
to 0.54.
+0.4 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.07
to 42.52.
-2.5 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.6pp
to 91.0pp.
+1.4pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 64.0pp
to 65.8pp.
+1.8pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 61.6pp
to 65.0pp.
+3.4pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 42.0pp
to 39.8pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.4pp
to 38.6pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.57
to 8.77.
+1.2 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.54
to 0.12.
-0.4 ▼
Thu 9:39p ET
FG total (model) moved from 41.72
to 45.07.
+3.4 ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Conditions changed from Rain
to Clouds.
noted
Thu 4:34p ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.52
to 41.72.
-0.8 ▼
Thu 4:34p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Rain.
noted
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.0pp
to 89.6pp.
-1.4pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 64.0pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.0pp
to 61.6pp.
-3.4pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.8pp
to 42.0pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.6pp
to 36.4pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.77
to 7.57.
-1.2 ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.12
to 0.54.
+0.4 ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.07
to 42.52.
-2.5 ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Thu 10:10a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Oct 16, 2022
MIN @ MIA
/ 45 / +3
MIA 16: MIN 24
0
scoreless
Nov 13, 2022
SEA @ TB
/ 45 / -2.5
TB 21: SEA 16
0
scoreless
Sep 25, 2022
BAL @ NE
/ 45.5 / +2.5
NE 26: BAL 37
7
TD, BAL
Sep 17, 2023
LAC @ TEN
/ 45.5 / +2.5
TEN 27: LAC 24
3
FG, LAC
Dec 10, 2023
IND @ CIN
/ 45 / -3
CIN 34: IND 14
7
TD, CIN
Sep 28, 2023
DET @ GB
/ 45 / +2.5
GB 20: DET 34
17
FG, GB
Oct 30, 2022
NYG @ SEA
/ 44.5 / -3
SEA 27: NYG 13
0
scoreless
Oct 31, 2022
CIN @ CLE
/ 45 / +3
CLE 32: CIN 13
0
scoreless
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
50% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 4.2
, opening drive scored 0%