No Tier
No priced edge
No market on this game beats the sharp line right now.
The model has Chicago Bears ahead at the end of the quarter 39% of the time, New England Patriots 39%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.8 pts projected. Chicago Bears gets on the board 66% of the time and New England Patriots 65%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 91% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. The sharp line has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.
Q1 total (model)
8.8
not quoted
CHI leads after Q1
39%
NE 39%, level 22%
NE scores in Q1
65%
context only, no pick
CHI scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
45.4
not quoted
Similar games, Q1 scored
75%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
The sharp line has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.
New England Patriots scores in the 1st quarter
65%
Context only: its offence against CHI’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Chicago Bears scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against NE’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
91%
Context only: scoreless the other 9%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
NE
39%
New England Patriots leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 65%, context only
CHI
39%
Chicago Bears leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 40%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No sharp-line moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.
Game margin
—
No sharp-line spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.
Total points in the game
45.4
Unpriced, our projection only. The sharp line posts no total on this game.
We project New England Patriots by 0.0 pts. The sharp line has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 45.4 pts projected in total, unpriced: the sharp line has not posted a total. The sharp line opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
67%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
9.5
Open, 9.5
unchanged
Now, 9.5
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-141
▲ from
-146
Open, -146
moved +5
Now, -141
Q1 ML away
+123
▼ from
+126
Open, +126
moved -3
Now, +123
FG total
50.5
Open, 50.5
unchanged
Now, 50.5
FG spread (H)
-3
Open, -3
unchanged
Now, -3
FG ML home
-154
▲ from
-164
Open, -164
moved +10
Now, -154
FG ML away
+138
▼ from
+144
Open, +144
moved -6
Now, +138
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model CHI 39% / tie 22% / NE 39% | — | -100 | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.8 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter margin we project CHI by 0.0 | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| Moneyline no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Spread no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Game total model 45.4 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
Every change we made, and why
Thu 6:30p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 68.3pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Thu 6:30p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.3pp
to 41.8pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Thu 6:30p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.1pp
to 36.6pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Thu 6:30p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.77
to 9.51.
+0.7 ▲
Thu 6:30p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.02
to 0.5.
+0.5 ▲
Thu 6:30p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.36
to 50.64.
+5.3 ▲
Thu 6:30p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.03
to -2.1.
-2.1 ▼
Thu 6:30p ET
FG win prob home moved from 49.9pp
to 56.5pp.
+6.6pp ▲
Thu 6:30p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 6:30p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Under.
noted
Thu 6:15p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 68.3pp
to 65.8pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Thu 6:15p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.8pp
to 39.3pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Thu 6:15p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.6pp
to 39.1pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Thu 6:15p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.51
to 8.77.
-0.7 ▼
Thu 6:15p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.5
to 0.02.
-0.5 ▼
Thu 6:15p ET
FG total (model) moved from 50.64
to 45.36.
-5.3 ▼
Thu 6:15p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.1
to 0.03.
+2.1 ▲
Thu 6:15p ET
FG win prob home moved from 56.5pp
to 49.9pp.
-6.6pp ▼
Thu 5:34p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Clear.
noted
Thu 4:34p ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Thu 10:10a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 68.3pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.3pp
to 41.8pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.1pp
to 36.6pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.77
to 9.51.
+0.7 ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.02
to 0.5.
+0.5 ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.36
to 50.64.
+5.3 ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.03
to -2.1.
-2.1 ▼
Thu 10:10a ET
FG win prob home moved from 49.9pp
to 56.5pp.
+6.6pp ▲
Thu 10:10a ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 10:10a ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Under.
noted
Thu 10:05a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 68.3pp
to 65.8pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Thu 10:05a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.8pp
to 39.3pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Thu 10:05a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.6pp
to 39.1pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Thu 10:05a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.51
to 8.77.
-0.7 ▼
Thu 10:05a ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.5
to 0.02.
-0.5 ▼
Thu 10:05a ET
FG total (model) moved from 50.64
to 45.36.
-5.3 ▼
Thu 10:05a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.1
to 0.03.
+2.1 ▲
Thu 10:05a ET
FG win prob home moved from 56.5pp
to 49.9pp.
-6.6pp ▼
Wed 3:11p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 68.3pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Wed 3:11p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.3pp
to 41.8pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Wed 3:11p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.1pp
to 36.6pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Wed 3:11p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.77
to 9.51.
+0.7 ▲
Wed 3:11p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.02
to 0.5.
+0.5 ▲
Wed 3:11p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.36
to 50.64.
+5.3 ▲
Wed 3:11p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 0.03
to -2.1.
-2.1 ▼
Wed 3:11p ET
FG win prob home moved from 49.9pp
to 56.5pp.
+6.6pp ▲
Wed 3:11p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Wed 3:11p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 Total Under.
noted
Wed 3:06p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 68.3pp
to 65.8pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Wed 3:06p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.8pp
to 39.3pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Wed 3:06p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.6pp
to 39.1pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Wed 3:06p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.51
to 8.77.
-0.7 ▼
Wed 3:06p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.5
to 0.02.
-0.5 ▼
Wed 3:06p ET
FG total (model) moved from 50.64
to 45.36.
-5.3 ▼
Wed 3:06p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.1
to 0.03.
+2.1 ▲
Wed 3:06p ET
FG win prob home moved from 56.5pp
to 49.9pp.
-6.6pp ▼
Wed 11:49a ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 68.3pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Wed 11:49a ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.3pp
to 41.8pp.
+2.5pp ▲
Wed 11:49a ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.1pp
to 36.6pp.
-2.5pp ▼
Wed 11:49a ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.77
to 9.51.
+0.7 ▲
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 25, 2022
LV @ TEN
/ 45.5 / +1.5
TEN 24: LV 22
10
TD, TEN
Nov 10, 2024
PIT @ WAS
/ 45 / -1.5
WAS 27: PIT 28
14
TD, PIT
Oct 1, 2023
LA @ IND
/ 44.5 / +1
IND 23: LA 29
14
TD, LA
Dec 20, 2025
GB @ CHI
/ 45.5 / -1.5
CHI 22: GB 16
0
scoreless
Sep 25, 2022
BAL @ NE
/ 45.5 / +2.5
NE 26: BAL 37
7
TD, BAL
Sep 17, 2023
LAC @ TEN
/ 45.5 / +2.5
TEN 27: LAC 24
3
FG, LAC
Jan 17, 2026
BUF @ DEN
/ 45.5 / -1.5
DEN 33: BUF 30
10
FG, DEN
Nov 10, 2025
PHI @ GB
/ 45.5 / -1.5
GB 7: PHI 10
0
scoreless
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
75% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 7.2
, opening drive scored 38%