No Tier
No priced edge
No market on this game beats the sharp line right now.
The model has Philadelphia Eagles ahead at the end of the quarter 40% of the time, Dallas Cowboys 39%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.9 pts projected. Philadelphia Eagles gets on the board 67% of the time and Dallas Cowboys 66%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 91% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. The sharp line has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.
Q1 total (model)
8.9
not quoted
PHI leads after Q1
40%
DAL 39%, level 22%
DAL scores in Q1
66%
context only, no pick
PHI scores in Q1
67%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
44.6
not quoted
Similar games, Q1 scored
75%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
The sharp line has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.
Dallas Cowboys scores in the 1st quarter
66%
Context only: its offence against PHI’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Philadelphia Eagles scores in the 1st quarter
67%
Context only: its offence against DAL’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
91%
Context only: scoreless the other 9%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
DAL
39%
Dallas Cowboys leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 66%, context only
PHI
40%
Philadelphia Eagles leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 67%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 41%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
—
No sharp-line moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.
Game margin
—
No sharp-line spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.
Total points in the game
44.6
Unpriced, our projection only. The sharp line posts no total on this game.
We project Philadelphia Eagles by 2.3 pts. The sharp line has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 44.6 pts projected in total, unpriced: the sharp line has not posted a total. The sharp line opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
67%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
0.5
Open, 0.5
unchanged
Now, 0.5
Q1 ML home
+121
▼ from
+129
Open, +129
moved -8
Now, +121
Q1 ML away
-139
▲ from
-149
Open, -149
moved +10
Now, -139
FG total
43.5
▼ from
44
Open, 44
moved -0.5
Now, 43.5
FG spread (H)
4
▼ from
4.5
Open, 4.5
moved -0.5
Now, 4
FG ML home
+184
▲ from
+179
Open, +179
moved +5
Now, +184
FG ML away
-207
▼ from
-206
Open, -206
moved -1
Now, -207
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model PHI 40% / tie 22% / DAL 39% | — | -103 | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter total we project 8.9 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| 1st quarter margin we project PHI by 0.1 | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated | |||||
| Moneyline no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Spread no sharp-line market - model number withheld | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Game total model 44.6 pts | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
Every change we made, and why
Mon 7:31p ET
Top market changed from Q1 Total Over
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Mon 7:16p ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML home
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Mon 6:46p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 3.05
to 2.65.
-0.4 ▼
Mon 6:46p ET
Best edge moved from 5.4
to 3.0.
-2.4 ▼
Mon 6:46p ET
Tier changed from wager
to lean.
noted
Mon 6:46p ET
Top market changed from FG ML home
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Mon 6:31p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.26
to 43.73.
+0.5 ▲
Mon 6:31p ET
Best edge moved from 3.4
to 5.4.
+2 ▲
Mon 6:31p ET
Tier changed from lean
to wager.
noted
Mon 6:31p ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML home
to FG ML home.
noted
Mon 6:16p ET
Top market changed from Q1 Total Over
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Mon 6:01p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.2
to 43.26.
-0.9 ▼
Mon 6:01p ET
Best edge moved from 5.4
to 3.5.
-1.9 ▼
Mon 6:01p ET
Tier changed from wager
to lean.
noted
Mon 6:01p ET
Top market changed from Q1 ML home
to Q1 Total Over.
noted
Mon 5:16p ET
Conditions changed from Clouds
to Clear.
noted
Mon 4:16p ET
Temperature moved from 60.0°F
to 66.0°F.
+6°F ▲
Mon 4:16p ET
Conditions changed from Clear
to Clouds.
noted
Mon 1:15p ET
Temperature moved from 54.0°F
to 59.0°F.
+5°F ▲
Sun 5:07a ET
Temperature moved from 58.0°F
to 52.0°F.
-6°F ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.4pp
to 89.6pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 66.8pp
to 61.9pp.
-4.9pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.5pp
to 63.9pp.
-1.6pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.8pp
to 36.9pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.6pp
to 41.5pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.91
to 7.63.
-1.3 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.11
to -0.44.
-0.6 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.57
to 44.2.
-0.4 ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.33
to 3.05.
+5.4 ▲
Fri 9:02p ET
FG win prob home moved from 57.2pp
to 40.6pp.
-16.6pp ▼
Fri 9:02p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Fri 9:02p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.6pp
to 91.4pp.
+1.8pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 61.9pp
to 66.8pp.
+4.9pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.9pp
to 65.5pp.
+1.6pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 36.9pp
to 39.8pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 41.5pp
to 38.6pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.63
to 8.91.
+1.3 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.44
to 0.11.
+0.6 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.2
to 44.57.
+0.4 ▲
Fri 8:57p ET
FG spread (model) moved from 3.05
to -2.33.
-5.4 ▼
Fri 8:57p ET
FG win prob home moved from 40.6pp
to 57.2pp.
+16.6pp ▲
Fri 2:44p ET
Top market changed from FG ML home
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.4pp
to 89.6pp.
-1.8pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 66.8pp
to 61.9pp.
-4.9pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.5pp
to 63.9pp.
-1.6pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.8pp
to 36.9pp.
-2.9pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.6pp
to 41.5pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.91
to 7.63.
-1.3 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.11
to -0.44.
-0.6 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.57
to 44.2.
-0.4 ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -2.33
to 3.05.
+5.4 ▲
Thu 9:44p ET
FG win prob home moved from 57.2pp
to 40.6pp.
-16.6pp ▼
Thu 9:44p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Thu 9:44p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML home.
noted
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.6pp
to 91.4pp.
+1.8pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 61.9pp
to 66.8pp.
+4.9pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 63.9pp
to 65.5pp.
+1.6pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 36.9pp
to 39.8pp.
+2.9pp ▲
Thu 9:39p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 41.5pp
to 38.6pp.
-2.9pp ▼
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 11, 2023
BUF @ NYJ
/ 44.5 / +2.5
NYJ 22: BUF 16
3
FG, BUF
Dec 7, 2025
IND @ JAX
/ 44.5 / +2.5
JAX 36: IND 19
21
TD, JAX
Sep 7, 2025
LV @ NE
/ 44.5 / -2.5
NE 13: LV 20
14
TD, LV
Oct 30, 2022
NYG @ SEA
/ 44.5 / -3
SEA 27: NYG 13
0
scoreless
Nov 13, 2022
SEA @ TB
/ 45 / -2.5
TB 21: SEA 16
0
scoreless
Nov 17, 2024
ATL @ DEN
/ 44.5 / -2
DEN 38: ATL 6
10
TD, DEN
Dec 21, 2025
TB @ CAR
/ 44.5 / +3
CAR 23: TB 20
10
FG, CAR
Oct 20, 2022
NO @ ARI
/ 44 / -2.5
ARI 42: NO 34
10
TD, NO
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
75% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 8.5
, opening drive scored 50%