CHI @ SEA | Q1 snapshot | FirstSnap.net

No Tier No priced edge

No market on this game beats the sharp line right now.

The model has Seattle Seahawks ahead at the end of the quarter 39% of the time, Chicago Bears 39%, and the quarter level 22%, with 8.7 pts projected. Seattle Seahawks gets on the board 65% of the time and Chicago Bears 66%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 91% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. The sharp line has not posted this game, so no market here carries an edge yet.

Seattle Seahawks leads at the end of the 1st quarter

our number only

39%

Chicago Bears ahead 39% Quarter level 22% Sharp line not quoted

Nobody scores 9% CHI first 46% SEA first 45%

The bar is a separate question from the headline: who gets on the board, not who is ahead when the quarter ends. We put someone scoring at 91%, which sets its width. Every number in the bar is context only. Back-testing found no edge on the scoring markets, so none of them carries a pick.

Q1 total (model) 8.7 not quoted

SEA leads after Q1 39% CHI 39%, level 22%

CHI scores in Q1 66% context only, no pick

SEA scores in Q1 65% context only, no pick

Open-drive score rate 42% league 42%

Game total (model) 44.6 not quoted

Similar games, Q1 scored 62% across 8 matches

The four numbers we publish for every game

Model probabilities. no book market None of these four is quoted anywhere, so none carries an edge or a pick

The sharp line has not posted a 1st-quarter line on this game yet. It opens the quarter about a week out, so for now there is no line to blend these toward and nothing to check them against. They are the model's own output, unvalidated, read them as a view, not as a price.

Chicago Bears scores in the 1st quarter 66% Context only: its offence against SEA’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.

Seattle Seahawks scores in the 1st quarter 65% Context only: its offence against CHI’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.

Opening drive ends in points 42% Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.

Someone scores in the 1st quarter 91% Context only: scoreless the other 9%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.

Which team is ahead when the quarter ends

CHI 39%

Chicago Bears leads at the end of the 1st quarter

Scores at all 66%, context only

SEA 39%

Seattle Seahawks leads at the end of the 1st quarter

Scores at all 65%, context only

LEVEL 22%

The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market

Both teams score 40%, context only

The full game: winner, margin and total

Model projection. no book market The sharp line has not posted a full-game line, so nothing here carries an edge

Who wins the game — No sharp-line moneyline on this game, so our win probability stays back. With no line to blend toward it runs to extremes we will not publish unchecked.

Game margin — No sharp-line spread on this game. Same rule as the moneyline: the projected margin stays back until there is a line to check it against.

Total points in the game 44.6 Unpriced, our projection only. The sharp line posts no total on this game.

Why we landed here

We project Seattle Seahawks by 2.5 pts. The sharp line has not posted a spread, so that margin is unvalidated and stays off the card above. 44.6 pts projected in total, unpriced: the sharp line has not posted a total. The sharp line opens the full game first, usually well before the quarter, so this is the half of the page that prices first.

How the first points get on the board

League rates, 2022–2025, 1,139 games

55% 36% 0% 9%

League outcome share, not a per-game model number

Touchdown opens the scoring55%
Field goal first36%
Safety / defensive score0%
No points at all in the 1st quarter9%

TD first, given a score 60% Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.

FG first, given a score 40% The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.

This cohort 40% TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.

How the price has moved since we published

Sharp line, 2 snapshots since Wed 12:14a ET

Q1 total 9.5

Open, 9.5 unchanged Now, 9.5

Q1 spread (H) -0.5

Open, -0.5 unchanged Now, -0.5

Q1 ML home -148

Open, -148 unchanged Now, -148

Q1 ML away +129

Open, +129 unchanged Now, +129

FG total 46.5

Open, 46.5 unchanged Now, 46.5

FG spread (H) -3.5

Open, -3.5 unchanged Now, -3.5

FG ML home -177 ▼ from -175

Open, -175 moved -2 Now, -177

FG ML away +155 ▲ from +154

Open, +154 moved +1 Now, +155

Every market we price, next to the book

Sharp line, posted price and vig-free fair

Market	Sharp line	Our odds	We like	Edge	Confidence
Q1 markets unpriced, model only, not validated
1st quarter moneyline model SEA 39% / tie 22% / CHI 39%	—	-101	no bet	—	unpriced
1st quarter total we project 8.7 pts	—	—	no bet	—	unpriced
1st quarter margin we project SEA by 0.0	—	—	no bet	—	unpriced
Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market	—	—	no bet	—	unpriced
Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market	—	—	no bet	—	unpriced
Full-game markets unpriced, model only, not validated
Moneyline no sharp-line market - model number withheld	—	—	no bet	—	unpriced
Spread no sharp-line market - model number withheld	—	—	no bet	—	unpriced
Game total model 44.6 pts	—	—	no bet	—	unpriced

Every change we made, and why

Derived from the model snapshot history, timestamps in ET

Wed 2:33p ET Home scores Q1 moved from 65.4pp to 68.3pp. +2.9pp ▲

Wed 2:33p ET Q1 ML home moved from 39.4pp to 41.9pp. +2.5pp ▲

Wed 2:33p ET Q1 ML away moved from 39.0pp to 36.5pp. -2.5pp ▼

Wed 2:33p ET Q1 total (model) moved from 8.66 to 9.52. +0.9 ▲

Wed 2:33p ET Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.04 to 0.51. +0.5 ▲

Wed 2:33p ET FG total (model) moved from 44.56 to 46.55. +2.0 ▲

Wed 2:33p ET FG spread (model) moved from -2.49 to -3.51. -1.0 ▼

Wed 2:33p ET FG win prob home moved from 57.7pp to 60.8pp. +3.1pp ▲

Wed 2:33p ET Tier changed from — to wager. noted

Wed 2:33p ET Top market changed from — to Q1 ML away. noted

Wed 2:28p ET Home scores Q1 moved from 68.3pp to 65.4pp. -2.9pp ▼

Wed 2:28p ET Q1 ML home moved from 41.9pp to 39.4pp. -2.5pp ▼

Wed 2:28p ET Q1 ML away moved from 36.5pp to 39.0pp. +2.5pp ▲

Wed 2:28p ET Q1 total (model) moved from 9.52 to 8.66. -0.9 ▼

Wed 2:28p ET Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.51 to 0.04. -0.5 ▼

Wed 2:28p ET FG total (model) moved from 46.55 to 44.56. -2.0 ▼

Wed 2:28p ET FG spread (model) moved from -3.51 to -2.49. +1.0 ▲

Wed 2:28p ET FG win prob home moved from 60.8pp to 57.7pp. -3.1pp ▼

Wed 2:13p ET Home scores Q1 moved from 65.4pp to 68.3pp. +2.9pp ▲

Wed 2:13p ET Q1 ML home moved from 39.4pp to 41.9pp. +2.5pp ▲

Wed 2:13p ET Q1 ML away moved from 39.0pp to 36.5pp. -2.5pp ▼

Wed 2:13p ET Q1 total (model) moved from 8.71 to 9.52. +0.8 ▲

Wed 2:13p ET Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.04 to 0.51. +0.5 ▲

Wed 2:13p ET FG total (model) moved from 44.79 to 46.64. +1.9 ▲

Wed 2:13p ET FG spread (model) moved from -2.49 to -3.51. -1.0 ▼

Wed 2:13p ET FG win prob home moved from 57.7pp to 60.8pp. +3.1pp ▲

Wed 2:13p ET Tier changed from — to wager. noted

Wed 2:13p ET Top market changed from — to Q1 ML away. noted

Wed 2:08p ET Home scores Q1 moved from 68.3pp to 65.4pp. -2.9pp ▼

Wed 2:08p ET Q1 ML home moved from 41.9pp to 39.4pp. -2.5pp ▼

Wed 2:08p ET Q1 ML away moved from 36.5pp to 39.0pp. +2.5pp ▲

Wed 2:08p ET Q1 total (model) moved from 9.52 to 8.71. -0.8 ▼

Wed 2:08p ET Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.51 to 0.04. -0.5 ▼

Wed 2:08p ET FG total (model) moved from 46.64 to 44.79. -1.9 ▼

Wed 2:08p ET FG spread (model) moved from -3.51 to -2.49. +1.0 ▲

Wed 2:08p ET FG win prob home moved from 60.8pp to 57.7pp. -3.1pp ▼

Wed 12:22p ET Wind moved from 7.0mph to 15.0mph. +8mph ▲

Wed 9:19a ET Conditions changed from Rain to Clouds. noted

Wed 8:19a ET Conditions changed from Clouds to Rain. noted

Wed 5:17a ET Conditions changed from Rain to Clouds. noted

Wed 2:15a ET Conditions changed from Clouds to Rain. noted

Wed 12:14a ET First numbers published. Q1 total projected 9.5. noted

How 8 similar games actually opened

Matched on total, spread and conditions, 2022–2025

DATE GAME FINAL Q1 PTS FIRST SCORE

Sep 11, 2023 BUF @ NYJ / 44.5 / +2.5 NYJ 22: BUF 16 3 FG, BUF

Oct 30, 2022 NYG @ SEA / 44.5 / -3 SEA 27: NYG 13 0 scoreless

Oct 15, 2023 MIN @ CHI / 44.5 / +3 CHI 13: MIN 19 3 FG, MIN

Nov 13, 2022 SEA @ TB / 45 / -2.5 TB 21: SEA 16 0 scoreless

Oct 20, 2022 NO @ ARI / 44 / -2.5 ARI 42: NO 34 10 TD, NO

Sep 10, 2023 DAL @ NYG / 44.5 / +3.5 NYG 0: DAL 40 16 TD, DAL

Sep 10, 2023 PHI @ NE / 44.5 / +3.5 NE 20: PHI 25 16 FG, PHI

Dec 1, 2024 HOU @ JAX / 44.5 / +3.5 JAX 20: HOU 23 0 scoreless

Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games 62% scored in Q1 , mean Q1 total 6.0 , opening drive scored 25%