CAR @ GB | Q1 snapshot | FirstSnap.net

Wager Q1 ML away

Best number on this game is Q1 ML away, +5.7 against the sharp line.

The model has Green Bay Packers ahead at the end of the quarter 42% of the time, Carolina Panthers 36%, and the quarter level 22%, with 9.4 pts projected. Green Bay Packers gets on the board 68% of the time and Carolina Panthers 66%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 92% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.

Green Bay Packers leads at the end of the 1st quarter

our number only

42%

Carolina Panthers ahead 36% Quarter level 22% Sharp line two-way, tie pushes

Nobody scores 8% CAR first 45% GB first 47%

The bar is a separate question from the headline: who gets on the board, not who is ahead when the quarter ends. We put someone scoring at 92%, which sets its width. Every number in the bar is context only. Back-testing found no edge on the scoring markets, so none of them carries a pick.

Q1 total (model) 9.4 Sharp line 9.5

GB leads after Q1 42% CAR 36%, level 22%

CAR scores in Q1 66% context only, no pick

GB scores in Q1 68% context only, no pick

Open-drive score rate 42% league 42%

Game total (model) 47.4 Sharp line 47.5

Similar games, Q1 scored 88% across 8 matches

The four numbers we publish for every game

Model probabilities. no book market None of these four is quoted anywhere, so none carries an edge or a pick

Carolina Panthers scores in the 1st quarter 66% Context only: its offence against GB’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.

Green Bay Packers scores in the 1st quarter 68% Context only: its offence against CAR’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.

Opening drive ends in points 42% Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.

Someone scores in the 1st quarter 92% Context only: scoreless the other 8%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.

Which team is ahead when the quarter ends

CAR 36%

Carolina Panthers leads at the end of the 1st quarter

Scores at all 66%, context only

GB 42%

Green Bay Packers leads at the end of the 1st quarter

Scores at all 68%, context only

LEVEL 22%

The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market

Both teams score 42%, context only

The full game: winner, margin and total

Model against the sharp line. priced Each card names the side whose number beats the book, and by how much

Who wins the game GB We give them a 65% chance, +0.9 edge at -197

Game margin GB −5.0 The book is at -4, no side

Total points in the game 47.4 The book is at 47.5, we like the under, +0.4 edge

Why we landed here

The model has Green Bay Packers winning 65% of the time, +0.9 better than the sharp line’s -197 implies. We project Green Bay Packers by 5.0 pts against a posted GB -4, close enough to the line that we name no side. 47.4 pts projected in total against a posted 47.5: we like the under, +0.4.

Model notes: fg_spread home/away retired from ★ picks

How the first points get on the board

League rates, 2022–2025, 1,139 games

55% 36% 0% 9%

League outcome share, not a per-game model number

Touchdown opens the scoring55%
Field goal first36%
Safety / defensive score0%
No points at all in the 1st quarter9%

TD first, given a score 60% Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.

FG first, given a score 40% The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.

This cohort 57% TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.

How the price has moved since we published

Sharp line, 4 snapshots since Wed 12:14a ET

Q1 total 9.5

Open, 9.5 unchanged Now, 9.5

Q1 spread (H) -0.5

Open, -0.5 unchanged Now, -0.5

Q1 ML home -159 ▲ from -160

Open, -160 moved +1 Now, -159

Q1 ML away +138

Open, +138 unchanged Now, +138

FG total 47.5

Open, 47.5 unchanged Now, 47.5

FG spread (H) -4

Open, -4 unchanged Now, -4

FG ML home -197

Open, -197 unchanged Now, -197

FG ML away +171 ▼ from +172

Open, +172 moved -1 Now, +171

Every market we price, next to the book

Sharp line, posted price and vig-free fair

Market	Sharp line	Our odds	We like	Edge	Confidence
Q1 markets
1st quarter moneyline model GB 42% / tie 22% / CAR 36%	(+138)	+116	CAR	+5.7	Wager
1st quarter total we project 9.4 pts	9.5 (-104)	-102	Under 9.5	+1.3	—
1st quarter margin we project GB by 0.6	-0.5 (+101)	—	no bet	—	—
Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market	—	—	no bet	—	unpriced
Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market	—	—	no bet	—	unpriced
Full-game markets
Moneyline model GB 65%	(-197)	-187	GB	+0.9	—
Spread model GB -5.0	-4 (+101)	—	no bet	—	—
Game total model 47.4 pts	47.5 (-108)	-102	Under 47.5	+0.4	—

Every change we made, and why

Derived from the model snapshot history, timestamps in ET

Wed 2:33p ET Q1 any-score moved from 90.7pp to 91.8pp. +1.1pp ▲

Wed 2:33p ET Home scores Q1 moved from 65.1pp to 68.2pp. +3.1pp ▲

Wed 2:33p ET Q1 ML home moved from 39.9pp to 42.0pp. +2.1pp ▲

Wed 2:33p ET Q1 ML away moved from 38.5pp to 36.4pp. -2.1pp ▼

Wed 2:33p ET Q1 total (model) moved from 8.63 to 9.45. +0.8 ▲

Wed 2:33p ET Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.14 to 0.55. +0.4 ▲

Wed 2:33p ET FG total (model) moved from 44.27 to 47.38. +3.1 ▲

Wed 2:33p ET Tier changed from — to wager. noted

Wed 2:33p ET Top market changed from — to Q1 ML away. noted

Wed 2:28p ET Q1 any-score moved from 91.8pp to 90.7pp. -1.1pp ▼

Wed 2:28p ET Home scores Q1 moved from 68.2pp to 65.1pp. -3.1pp ▼

Wed 2:28p ET Q1 ML home moved from 42.0pp to 39.9pp. -2.1pp ▼

Wed 2:28p ET Q1 ML away moved from 36.4pp to 38.5pp. +2.1pp ▲

Wed 2:28p ET Q1 total (model) moved from 9.45 to 8.63. -0.8 ▼

Wed 2:28p ET Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.55 to 0.14. -0.4 ▼

Wed 2:28p ET FG total (model) moved from 47.38 to 44.27. -3.1 ▼

Wed 2:13p ET Q1 any-score moved from 90.7pp to 91.8pp. +1.1pp ▲

Wed 2:13p ET Home scores Q1 moved from 65.1pp to 68.2pp. +3.1pp ▲

Wed 2:13p ET Q1 ML home moved from 39.9pp to 42.0pp. +2.1pp ▲

Wed 2:13p ET Q1 ML away moved from 38.5pp to 36.4pp. -2.1pp ▼

Wed 2:13p ET Q1 total (model) moved from 8.63 to 9.45. +0.8 ▲

Wed 2:13p ET Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.14 to 0.55. +0.4 ▲

Wed 2:13p ET FG total (model) moved from 44.27 to 47.38. +3.1 ▲

Wed 2:13p ET Tier changed from — to wager. noted

Wed 2:13p ET Top market changed from — to Q1 ML away. noted

Wed 2:08p ET Q1 any-score moved from 91.8pp to 90.7pp. -1.1pp ▼

Wed 2:08p ET Home scores Q1 moved from 68.2pp to 65.1pp. -3.1pp ▼

Wed 2:08p ET Q1 ML home moved from 42.0pp to 39.9pp. -2.1pp ▼

Wed 2:08p ET Q1 ML away moved from 36.4pp to 38.5pp. +2.1pp ▲

Wed 2:08p ET Q1 total (model) moved from 9.45 to 8.63. -0.8 ▼

Wed 2:08p ET Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.55 to 0.14. -0.4 ▼

Wed 2:08p ET FG total (model) moved from 47.38 to 44.27. -3.1 ▼

Wed 4:16a ET Temperature moved from 53.0°F to 48.0°F. -5°F ▼

Wed 12:14a ET First numbers published. Q1 total projected 9.4. noted

How 8 similar games actually opened

Matched on total, spread and conditions, 2022–2025

DATE GAME FINAL Q1 PTS FIRST SCORE

Nov 27, 2022 LV @ SEA / 47.5 / -4 SEA 34: LV 40 17 TD, SEA

Oct 9, 2022 CIN @ BAL / 47.5 / -3 BAL 19: CIN 17 3 FG, BAL

Jan 1, 2023 MIN @ GB / 47.5 / -3 GB 41: MIN 17 17 FG, MIN

Nov 16, 2025 WAS @ MIA / 47.5 / -2.5 MIA 16: WAS 13 6 FG, MIA

Dec 11, 2022 CLE @ CIN / 47 / -4.5 CIN 23: CLE 10 0 scoreless

Nov 28, 2024 MIA @ GB / 47.5 / -3.5 GB 30: MIA 17 14 TD, GB

Dec 22, 2024 PHI @ WAS / 47 / +4 WAS 36: PHI 33 28 TD, PHI

Jan 3, 2026 SEA @ SF / 47.5 / +2.5 SF 3: SEA 13 7 TD, SEA

Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games 88% scored in Q1 , mean Q1 total 11.5 , opening drive scored 12%