Lean
Q1 ML away
Best number on this game is Q1 ML away, +3.2 against the sharp line.
The model has Detroit Lions ahead at the end of the quarter 42% of the time, Minnesota Vikings 37%, and the quarter level 22%, with 7.6 pts projected. Detroit Lions gets on the board 64% of the time and Minnesota Vikings 62%; the opening drive ends in points 43% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 90% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
7.6
Sharp line 7.5
DET leads after Q1
42%
MIN 37%, level 22%
MIN scores in Q1
62%
context only, no pick
DET scores in Q1
64%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
43%
league 42%
Game total (model)
46.0
Sharp line 46
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Minnesota Vikings scores in the 1st quarter
62%
Context only: its offence against DET’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Detroit Lions scores in the 1st quarter
64%
Context only: its offence against MIN’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
43%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
90%
Context only: scoreless the other 10%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
MIN
37%
Minnesota Vikings leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 62%, context only
DET
42%
Detroit Lions leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 64%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 36%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
MIN
We give them a 38% chance,
+0.3 edge at +159
Game margin
DET
−4.0
The book is at -3, no side
Total points in the game
46.0
The book is at 46,
we like the over, +1.0 edge
The model has Minnesota Vikings winning 38% of the time, +0.3 better than the sharp line’s +159 implies. We project Detroit Lions by 4.0 pts against a posted DET -3, close enough to the line that we name no side. 46.0 pts projected in total against a posted 46: we like the over, +1.0.
Model notes: fg_spread home/away retired from ★ picks
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
88%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
-0.5
Open, -0.5
unchanged
Now, -0.5
Q1 ML home
-140
▲ from
-141
Open, -141
moved +1
Now, -140
Q1 ML away
+122
Open, +122
unchanged
Now, +122
FG total
46
Open, 46
unchanged
Now, 46
FG spread (H)
-3
Open, -3
unchanged
Now, -3
FG ML home
-181
Open, -181
unchanged
Now, -181
FG ML away
+159
Open, +159
unchanged
Now, +159
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model DET 42% / tie 22% / MIN 37% | (+122) | +114 | MIN | +3.2 | Lean |
| 1st quarter total we project 7.6 pts | 7.5 (-112) | +102 | Under 7.5 | -1.3 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project DET by 0.5 | -0.5 (+115) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model DET 62% | (+159) | +165 | MIN | +0.3 | — |
| Spread model DET -4.0 | -3 (-120) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Game total model 46.0 pts | 46 (-103) | +100 | Over 46 | +1.0 | — |
Every change we made, and why
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.1pp
to 89.6pp.
-1.5pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.1pp
to 61.7pp.
-4.4pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.2pp
to 41.8pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.2pp
to 36.6pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.75
to 7.56.
-1.2 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.0
to 0.49.
+0.5 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.22
to 45.95.
+1.7 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -4.74
to -4.01.
+0.7 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG win prob home moved from 64.4pp
to 62.2pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:33p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.6pp
to 91.1pp.
+1.5pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 61.7pp
to 66.1pp.
+4.4pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.8pp
to 39.2pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.6pp
to 39.2pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.56
to 8.75.
+1.2 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.49
to 0.0.
-0.5 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.95
to 44.22.
-1.7 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -4.01
to -4.74.
-0.7 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG win prob home moved from 62.2pp
to 64.4pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.1pp
to 89.6pp.
-1.5pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.1pp
to 61.7pp.
-4.4pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.2pp
to 41.8pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.2pp
to 36.6pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.75
to 7.56.
-1.2 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.0
to 0.49.
+0.5 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG total (model) moved from 44.22
to 45.95.
+1.7 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -4.74
to -4.01.
+0.7 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG win prob home moved from 64.4pp
to 62.2pp.
-2.2pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:13p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML away.
noted
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.6pp
to 91.1pp.
+1.5pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 61.7pp
to 66.1pp.
+4.4pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 41.8pp
to 39.2pp.
-2.6pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 36.6pp
to 39.2pp.
+2.6pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.56
to 8.75.
+1.2 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.49
to 0.0.
-0.5 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.95
to 44.22.
-1.7 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -4.01
to -4.74.
-0.7 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG win prob home moved from 62.2pp
to 64.4pp.
+2.2pp ▲
Wed 12:14a ET
First numbers published.
Q1 total projected 7.6.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 22, 2024
KC @ ATL
/ 46 / +3
ATL 17: KC 22
7
TD, ATL
Dec 15, 2024
TB @ LAC
/ 46 / -3
LAC 17: TB 40
14
TD, TB
Dec 18, 2022
TEN @ LAC
/ 46.5 / -3
LAC 17: TEN 14
7
TD, LAC
Oct 8, 2023
CIN @ ARI
/ 45.5 / +3
ARI 20: CIN 34
10
TD, CIN
Dec 8, 2024
SEA @ ARI
/ 45.5 / -3
ARI 18: SEA 30
24
TD, ARI
Oct 23, 2025
MIN @ LAC
/ 45.5 / -3
LAC 37: MIN 10
7
TD, LAC
Nov 9, 2025
PIT @ LAC
/ 45.5 / -3
LAC 25: PIT 10
5
FG, PIT
Sep 22, 2024
HOU @ MIN
/ 46 / +2
MIN 34: HOU 7
14
TD, MIN
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 11.0
, opening drive scored 38%