Lean
Q1 ML home
Best number on this game is Q1 ML home, +3.2 against the sharp line.
The model has Dallas Cowboys ahead at the end of the quarter 54% of the time, Arizona Cardinals 25%, and the quarter level 22%, with 10.5 pts projected. Dallas Cowboys gets on the board 76% of the time and Arizona Cardinals 63%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 93% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
10.5
Sharp line 10.5
DAL leads after Q1
54%
ARI 25%, level 22%
ARI scores in Q1
63%
context only, no pick
DAL scores in Q1
76%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
53.8
Sharp line 54.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Arizona Cardinals scores in the 1st quarter
63%
Context only: its offence against DAL’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Dallas Cowboys scores in the 1st quarter
76%
Context only: its offence against ARI’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
93%
Context only: scoreless the other 7%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
ARI
25%
Arizona Cardinals leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 63%, context only
DAL
54%
Dallas Cowboys leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 76%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 46%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
ARI
We give them a 29% chance,
+2.8 edge at +266
Game margin
DAL
−7.0
The book is at -7.5, no side
Total points in the game
53.8
The book is at 54.5,
we like the under, +2.1 edge
The model has Arizona Cardinals winning 29% of the time, +2.8 better than the sharp line’s +266 implies. We project Dallas Cowboys by 7.0 pts against a posted DAL -7.5, close enough to the line that we name no side. 53.8 pts projected in total against a posted 54.5: we like the under, +2.1.
Model notes: fg_spread home/away retired from ★ picks
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
75%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
10.5
Open, 10.5
unchanged
Now, 10.5
Q1 spread (H)
-3
Open, -3
unchanged
Now, -3
Q1 ML home
-211
▼ from
-208
Open, -208
moved -3
Now, -211
Q1 ML away
+178
▲ from
+177
Open, +177
moved +1
Now, +178
FG total
54.5
Open, 54.5
unchanged
Now, 54.5
FG spread (H)
-7.5
▼ from
-6.5
Open, -6.5
moved -1
Now, -7.5
FG ML home
-320
▼ from
-300
Open, -300
moved -20
Now, -320
FG ML away
+266
▲ from
+251
Open, +251
moved +15
Now, +266
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model DAL 54% / tie 22% / ARI 25% | (-211) | -218 | DAL | +3.2 | Lean |
| 1st quarter total we project 10.5 pts | 10.5 (-123) | +100 | Under 10.5 | -3.1 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project DAL by 2.9 | -3 (-103) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model DAL 71% | (+266) | +242 | ARI | +2.8 | Lean |
| Spread model DAL -7.0 | -7.5 (+109) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Game total model 53.8 pts | 54.5 (-108) | -109 | Under 54.5 | +2.1 | Lean |
Every change we made, and why
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.4pp
to 93.3pp.
+1.9pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 76.0pp.
+10.2pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.5pp
to 62.8pp.
-3.7pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.1pp
to 53.8pp.
+14.7pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.3pp
to 24.6pp.
-14.7pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.84
to 10.5.
+1.7 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.01
to 2.93.
+2.9 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.8
to 53.77.
+10.0 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.16
to -7.03.
-3.9 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
FG win prob home moved from 59.7pp
to 70.8pp.
+11.1pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:33p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 93.3pp
to 91.4pp.
-1.9pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 76.0pp
to 65.8pp.
-10.2pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 62.8pp
to 66.5pp.
+3.7pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 53.8pp
to 39.1pp.
-14.7pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 24.6pp
to 39.3pp.
+14.7pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 10.5
to 8.84.
-1.7 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 2.93
to -0.01.
-2.9 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG total (model) moved from 53.77
to 43.8.
-10.0 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -7.03
to -3.16.
+3.9 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
FG win prob home moved from 70.8pp
to 59.7pp.
-11.1pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.4pp
to 93.3pp.
+1.9pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 76.0pp.
+10.2pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.5pp
to 62.8pp.
-3.7pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.1pp
to 53.8pp.
+14.7pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.3pp
to 24.6pp.
-14.7pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.84
to 10.5.
+1.7 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.01
to 2.93.
+2.9 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.8
to 53.77.
+10.0 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -3.16
to -7.03.
-3.9 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
FG win prob home moved from 59.7pp
to 70.8pp.
+11.1pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:13p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 93.3pp
to 91.4pp.
-1.9pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 76.0pp
to 65.8pp.
-10.2pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 62.8pp
to 66.5pp.
+3.7pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 53.8pp
to 39.1pp.
-14.7pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 24.6pp
to 39.3pp.
+14.7pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 10.5
to 8.84.
-1.7 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 2.93
to -0.01.
-2.9 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG total (model) moved from 53.77
to 43.8.
-10.0 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -7.03
to -3.16.
+3.9 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
FG win prob home moved from 70.8pp
to 59.7pp.
-11.1pp ▼
Wed 8:34a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -6.63
to -7.03.
-0.4 ▼
Wed 7:49a ET
FG spread (model) moved from -6.22
to -6.63.
-0.4 ▼
Wed 7:49a ET
Top market changed from FG ML away
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Wed 12:14a ET
First numbers published.
Q1 total projected 10.5.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Oct 20, 2025
TB @ DET
/ 54.5 / -6
DET 24: TB 9
7
TD, DET
Dec 14, 2025
DET @ LA
/ 54.5 / -5.5
LA 41: DET 34
14
TD, DET
Sep 11, 2022
KC @ ARI
/ 54 / +6
ARI 21: KC 44
14
TD, KC
Jan 18, 2025
WAS @ DET
/ 55.5 / -8.5
DET 31: WAS 45
10
TD, DET
Nov 24, 2022
BUF @ DET
/ 54 / +10
DET 25: BUF 28
14
TD, DET
Sep 8, 2024
LA @ DET
/ 54 / -5
DET 26: LA 20
3
FG, LA
Dec 21, 2025
PIT @ DET
/ 52.5 / -7.5
DET 24: PIT 29
3
FG, PIT
Jan 14, 2024
GB @ DAL
/ 52.5 / -7
DAL 32: GB 48
7
TD, GB
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 9.0
, opening drive scored 38%