Wager
FG ML away
Best number on this game is FG ML away, +4.1 against the sharp line.
The model has Jacksonville Jaguars ahead at the end of the quarter 54% of the time, Indianapolis Colts 25%, and the quarter level 22%, with 9.6 pts projected. Jacksonville Jaguars gets on the board 74% of the time and Indianapolis Colts 61%; the opening drive ends in points 41% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 92% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick. Weather moves the Q1 projection by -0.5 pts.
Q1 total (model)
9.6
Sharp line 9.5
JAX leads after Q1
54%
IND 25%, level 22%
IND scores in Q1
61%
context only, no pick
JAX scores in Q1
74%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
41%
league 42%
Game total (model)
45.9
Sharp line 46.5
Similar games, Q1 scored
88%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Indianapolis Colts scores in the 1st quarter
61%
Context only: its offence against JAX’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Jacksonville Jaguars scores in the 1st quarter
74%
Context only: its offence against IND’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
41%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
92%
Context only: scoreless the other 8%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
IND
25%
Indianapolis Colts leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 61%, context only
JAX
54%
Jacksonville Jaguars leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 74%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 42%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
IND
We give them a 25% chance,
+4.1 edge at +372
Game margin
JAX
−8.8
The book is at -10.5, no side
Total points in the game
45.9
The book is at 46.5,
we like the under, +0.8 edge
The model has Indianapolis Colts winning 25% of the time, +4.1 better than the sharp line’s +372 implies. We project Jacksonville Jaguars by 8.8 pts against a posted JAX -10.5, close enough to the line that we name no side. 45.9 pts projected in total against a posted 46.5: we like the under, +0.8. Weather moves the full-game total by -2 pts.
Model notes: fg_spread home/away retired from ★ picks
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
71%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
9.5
Open, 9.5
unchanged
Now, 9.5
Q1 spread (H)
-3
Open, -3
unchanged
Now, -3
Q1 ML home
-271
▼ from
-258
Open, -258
moved -13
Now, -271
Q1 ML away
+223
▲ from
+214
Open, +214
moved +9
Now, +223
FG total
46.5
Open, 46.5
unchanged
Now, 46.5
FG spread (H)
-10.5
▼ from
-10
Open, -10
moved -0.5
Now, -10.5
FG ML home
-475
▼ from
-437
Open, -437
moved -38
Now, -475
FG ML away
+372
▲ from
+348
Open, +348
moved +24
Now, +372
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model JAX 54% / tie 22% / IND 25% | (+223) | +216 | IND | +1.9 | Lean |
| 1st quarter total we project 9.6 pts | 9.5 (-111) | +102 | Under 9.5 | -1.0 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project JAX by 2.9 | -3 (-115) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model JAX 75% | (+372) | +307 | IND | +4.1 | Wager |
| Spread model JAX -8.8 | -10.5 (+102) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Game total model 45.9 pts | 46.5 (-112) | -107 | Under 46.5 | +0.8 | — |
Every change we made, and why
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.2pp
to 92.2pp.
+1pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.5pp
to 73.8pp.
+8.3pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.0pp
to 60.7pp.
-5.3pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.7pp
to 53.6pp.
+14.9pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.7pp
to 24.8pp.
-14.9pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.4
to 9.56.
+1.2 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.1
to 2.89.
+3.0 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.04
to 45.94.
+2.9 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.6
to -8.85.
-7.2 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
FG win prob home moved from 54.9pp
to 75.4pp.
+20.5pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Wed 2:33p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML away.
noted
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.2pp
to 91.2pp.
-1pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 73.8pp
to 65.5pp.
-8.3pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 60.7pp
to 66.0pp.
+5.3pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 53.6pp
to 38.7pp.
-14.9pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 24.8pp
to 39.7pp.
+14.9pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.56
to 8.4.
-1.2 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 2.89
to -0.1.
-3.0 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.94
to 43.04.
-2.9 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -8.85
to -1.6.
+7.2 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
FG win prob home moved from 75.4pp
to 54.9pp.
-20.5pp ▼
Wed 2:18p ET
Tier changed from lean
to wager.
noted
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.2pp
to 92.2pp.
+1pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.5pp
to 73.8pp.
+8.3pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 66.0pp
to 60.7pp.
-5.3pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 38.7pp
to 53.6pp.
+14.9pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 39.7pp
to 24.8pp.
-14.9pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.4
to 9.56.
+1.2 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from -0.1
to 2.89.
+3.0 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG total (model) moved from 43.04
to 45.94.
+2.9 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -1.6
to -8.85.
-7.2 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
FG win prob home moved from 54.9pp
to 75.4pp.
+20.5pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:13p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML away.
noted
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.2pp
to 91.2pp.
-1pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 73.8pp
to 65.5pp.
-8.3pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 60.7pp
to 66.0pp.
+5.3pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 53.6pp
to 38.7pp.
-14.9pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 24.8pp
to 39.7pp.
+14.9pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.56
to 8.4.
-1.2 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 2.89
to -0.1.
-3.0 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG total (model) moved from 45.94
to 43.04.
-2.9 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -8.85
to -1.6.
+7.2 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
FG win prob home moved from 75.4pp
to 54.9pp.
-20.5pp ▼
Wed 2:03p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -8.44
to -8.85.
-0.4 ▼
Wed 2:03p ET
Best edge moved from 4.7
to 3.5.
-1.2 ▼
Wed 2:03p ET
Tier changed from wager
to lean.
noted
Wed 10:20a ET
Wind moved from 10.0mph
to 5.0mph.
-5mph ▼
Wed 12:14a ET
First numbers published.
Q1 total projected 9.6.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 18, 2022
HOU @ DEN
/ 46 / -10.5
DEN 16: HOU 9
6
FG, DEN
Oct 9, 2022
ATL @ TB
/ 46 / -10.5
TB 21: ATL 15
0
scoreless
Oct 30, 2022
GB @ BUF
/ 47 / -10.5
BUF 27: GB 17
7
TD, BUF
Oct 16, 2022
TB @ PIT
/ 47 / +10
PIT 20: TB 18
10
TD, PIT
Oct 12, 2023
DEN @ KC
/ 47.5 / -10.5
KC 19: DEN 8
3
FG, KC
Dec 22, 2024
CLE @ CIN
/ 46.5 / -10
CIN 24: CLE 6
7
TD, CIN
Nov 3, 2024
DEN @ BAL
/ 46.5 / -9
BAL 41: DEN 10
7
TD, BAL
Sep 19, 2022
TEN @ BUF
/ 47.5 / -10
BUF 41: TEN 7
14
TD, BUF
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
88% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 6.8
, opening drive scored 12%