Wager
Q1 ML home
Best number on this game is Q1 ML home, +4.1 against the sharp line.
The model has Los Angeles Rams ahead at the end of the quarter 54% of the time, Los Angeles Chargers 24%, and the quarter level 22%, with 7.6 pts projected. Los Angeles Rams gets on the board 69% of the time and Los Angeles Chargers 56%; the opening drive ends in points 41% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 90% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
7.6
Sharp line 7.5
LAR leads after Q1
54%
LAC 24%, level 22%
LAC scores in Q1
56%
context only, no pick
LAR scores in Q1
69%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
41%
league 42%
Game total (model)
45.4
Sharp line 45
Similar games, Q1 scored
100%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Los Angeles Chargers scores in the 1st quarter
56%
Context only: its offence against LAR’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Los Angeles Rams scores in the 1st quarter
69%
Context only: its offence against LAC’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
41%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
90%
Context only: scoreless the other 10%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
LAC
24%
Los Angeles Chargers leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 56%, context only
LAR
54%
Los Angeles Rams leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 69%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 36%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
LAC
We give them a 28% chance,
+1.4 edge at +258
Game margin
LAR
−7.3
The book is at -7, no side
Total points in the game
45.4
The book is at 45,
we like the over, +1.0 edge
The model has Los Angeles Chargers winning 28% of the time, +1.4 better than the sharp line’s +258 implies. We project Los Angeles Rams by 7.3 pts against a posted LAR -7, close enough to the line that we name no side. 45.4 pts projected in total against a posted 45: we like the over, +1.0.
Model notes: fg_spread home/away retired from ★ picks
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
75%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
7.5
Open, 7.5
unchanged
Now, 7.5
Q1 spread (H)
-3
Open, -3
unchanged
Now, -3
Q1 ML home
-205
Open, -205
unchanged
Now, -205
Q1 ML away
+174
Open, +174
unchanged
Now, +174
FG total
45
Open, 45
unchanged
Now, 45
FG spread (H)
-7
Open, -7
unchanged
Now, -7
FG ML home
-310
Open, -310
unchanged
Now, -310
FG ML away
+258
Open, +258
unchanged
Now, +258
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model LAR 54% / tie 22% / LAC 24% | (-205) | -221 | LAR | +4.1 | Wager |
| 1st quarter total we project 7.6 pts | 7.5 (-105) | +102 | Under 7.5 | +0.2 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project LAR by 3.0 | -3 (+110) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model LAR 72% | (+258) | +252 | LAC | +1.4 | — |
| Spread model LAR -7.3 | -7 (+108) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Game total model 45.4 pts | 45 (-109) | -105 | Over 45 | +1.0 | — |
Every change we made, and why
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.1pp
to 89.9pp.
-1.2pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 69.5pp.
+3.9pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 56.1pp.
-9.7pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.7pp
to 54.0pp.
+14.3pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.7pp
to 24.4pp.
-14.3pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.78
to 7.57.
-1.2 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.1
to 2.98.
+2.9 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -4.95
to -7.34.
-2.4 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
FG win prob home moved from 65.0pp
to 71.6pp.
+6.6pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Wed 2:33p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.9pp
to 91.1pp.
+1.2pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 69.5pp
to 65.6pp.
-3.9pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 56.1pp
to 65.8pp.
+9.7pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 54.0pp
to 39.7pp.
-14.3pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 24.4pp
to 38.7pp.
+14.3pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.57
to 8.78.
+1.2 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 2.98
to 0.1.
-2.9 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -7.34
to -4.95.
+2.4 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
FG win prob home moved from 71.6pp
to 65.0pp.
-6.6pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.1pp
to 89.9pp.
-1.2pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 65.6pp
to 69.5pp.
+3.9pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.8pp
to 56.1pp.
-9.7pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.7pp
to 54.0pp.
+14.3pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.7pp
to 24.4pp.
-14.3pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.78
to 7.57.
-1.2 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.1
to 2.98.
+2.9 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -4.95
to -7.34.
-2.4 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
FG win prob home moved from 65.0pp
to 71.6pp.
+6.6pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Tier changed from —
to wager.
noted
Wed 2:13p ET
Top market changed from —
to Q1 ML home.
noted
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 89.9pp
to 91.1pp.
+1.2pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 69.5pp
to 65.6pp.
-3.9pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 56.1pp
to 65.8pp.
+9.7pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 54.0pp
to 39.7pp.
-14.3pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 24.4pp
to 38.7pp.
+14.3pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 7.57
to 8.78.
+1.2 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 2.98
to 0.1.
-2.9 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -7.34
to -4.95.
+2.4 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
FG win prob home moved from 71.6pp
to 65.0pp.
-6.6pp ▼
Wed 12:14a ET
First numbers published.
Q1 total projected 7.6.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Sep 17, 2023
SF @ LA
/ 45 / +7.5
LA 23: SF 30
10
TD, SF
Oct 23, 2023
SF @ MIN
/ 44.5 / +7
MIN 22: SF 17
7
TD, MIN
Sep 14, 2025
CAR @ ARI
/ 45.5 / -7
ARI 27: CAR 22
13
TD, ARI
Oct 19, 2025
GB @ ARI
/ 44.5 / +7
ARI 23: GB 27
3
FG, ARI
Oct 26, 2025
MIA @ ATL
/ 44.5 / -7
ATL 10: MIA 34
7
TD, MIA
Dec 7, 2025
SEA @ ATL
/ 44.5 / +7
ATL 9: SEA 37
6
FG, ATL
Dec 25, 2025
DET @ MIN
/ 45.5 / +7
MIN 23: DET 10
7
TD, MIN
Nov 20, 2022
PHI @ IND
/ 45.5 / +6.5
IND 16: PHI 17
7
TD, IND
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
100% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 7.5
, opening drive scored 38%