Lean
FG ML away
Best number on this game is FG ML away, +3.1 against the sharp line.
The model has Cincinnati Bengals ahead at the end of the quarter 56% of the time, Tennessee Titans 22%, and the quarter level 22%, with 9.5 pts projected. Cincinnati Bengals gets on the board 75% of the time and Tennessee Titans 59%; the opening drive ends in points 42% of the time and someone scores in the quarter 92% of it. All four are context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.
Q1 total (model)
9.5
Sharp line 9.5
CIN leads after Q1
56%
TEN 22%, level 22%
TEN scores in Q1
59%
context only, no pick
CIN scores in Q1
75%
context only, no pick
Open-drive score rate
42%
league 42%
Game total (model)
46.1
Sharp line 47
Similar games, Q1 scored
88%
across 8 matches
The four numbers we publish for every game
Tennessee Titans scores in the 1st quarter
59%
Context only: its offence against CIN’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Cincinnati Bengals scores in the 1st quarter
75%
Context only: its offence against TEN’s Q1 defence. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Opening drive ends in points
42%
Context only, and averaged over both possible receivers — the coin toss has not happened. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
Someone scores in the 1st quarter
92%
Context only: scoreless the other 8%. Back-testing found no edge here: no pick, no fair price.
TEN
22%
Tennessee Titans leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 59%, context only
CIN
56%
Cincinnati Bengals leads at the end of the 1st quarter
Scores at all 75%, context only
LEVEL
22%
The quarter ends level, the third side of the same market
Both teams score 42%, context only
The full game: winner, margin and total
Who wins the game
TEN
We give them a 22% chance,
+3.1 edge at +412
Game margin
CIN
−10.0
The book is at -10.5, no side
Total points in the game
46.1
The book is at 47,
we like the under, +0.9 edge
The model has Tennessee Titans winning 22% of the time, +3.1 better than the sharp line’s +412 implies. We project Cincinnati Bengals by 10.0 pts against a posted CIN -10.5, close enough to the line that we name no side. 46.1 pts projected in total against a posted 47: we like the under, +0.9.
Model notes: fg_spread home/away retired from ★ picks
How the first points get on the board
League outcome share, not a per-game model number
- Touchdown opens the scoring55%
- Field goal first36%
- Safety / defensive score0%
- No points at all in the 1st quarter9%
TD first, given a score
60%
Conditional on the quarter producing points at all, across 1,139 games in 2022–2025.
FG first, given a score
40%
The complement, the same denominator, so the two read against each other directly.
This cohort
71%
TD-first share across the 8 games priced most like this one.
How the price has moved since we published
Q1 total
9.5
Open, 9.5
unchanged
Now, 9.5
Q1 spread (H)
-3.5
Open, -3.5
unchanged
Now, -3.5
Q1 ML home
-271
▼ from
-265
Open, -265
moved -6
Now, -271
Q1 ML away
+223
▲ from
+219
Open, +219
moved +4
Now, +223
FG total
47
Open, 47
unchanged
Now, 47
FG spread (H)
-10.5
Open, -10.5
unchanged
Now, -10.5
FG ML home
-536
▼ from
-532
Open, -532
moved -4
Now, -536
FG ML away
+412
▲ from
+409
Open, +409
moved +3
Now, +412
Every market we price, next to the book
| Market | Sharp line | Our odds | We like | Edge | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 markets | |||||
| 1st quarter moneyline model CIN 56% / tie 22% / TEN 22% | (-271) | -252 | CIN | +1.3 | — |
| 1st quarter total we project 9.5 pts | 9.5 (-110) | -101 | Under 9.5 | -0.3 | — |
| 1st quarter margin we project CIN by 3.5 | -3.5 (+105) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Opening drive ends in a score context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Someone scores in the 1st quarter context only - no edge, no pick, no book market | — | — | no bet | — | unpriced |
| Full-game markets | |||||
| Moneyline model CIN 78% | (+412) | +356 | TEN | +3.1 | Lean |
| Spread model CIN -10.0 | -10.5 (-102) | — | no bet | — | — |
| Game total model 46.1 pts | 47 (-116) | -111 | Under 47 | +0.9 | — |
Every change we made, and why
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.1pp
to 92.3pp.
+1.2pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 66.1pp
to 74.8pp.
+8.7pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.2pp
to 59.3pp.
-5.9pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.6pp
to 56.1pp.
+16.5pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.8pp
to 22.3pp.
-16.5pp ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.7
to 9.48.
+0.8 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.07
to 3.45.
+3.4 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.24
to 46.09.
+3.9 ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -4.39
to -9.96.
-5.6 ▼
Wed 2:33p ET
FG win prob home moved from 63.4pp
to 78.1pp.
+14.7pp ▲
Wed 2:33p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:33p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML away.
noted
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.3pp
to 91.1pp.
-1.2pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 74.8pp
to 66.1pp.
-8.7pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 59.3pp
to 65.2pp.
+5.9pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 56.1pp
to 39.6pp.
-16.5pp ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 22.3pp
to 38.8pp.
+16.5pp ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.48
to 8.7.
-0.8 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 3.45
to 0.07.
-3.4 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG total (model) moved from 46.09
to 42.24.
-3.9 ▼
Wed 2:28p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -9.96
to -4.39.
+5.6 ▲
Wed 2:28p ET
FG win prob home moved from 78.1pp
to 63.4pp.
-14.7pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 91.1pp
to 92.3pp.
+1.2pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 66.1pp
to 74.8pp.
+8.7pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 65.2pp
to 59.3pp.
-5.9pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 39.6pp
to 56.1pp.
+16.5pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 38.8pp
to 22.3pp.
-16.5pp ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 8.7
to 9.48.
+0.8 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 0.07
to 3.45.
+3.4 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG total (model) moved from 42.24
to 46.09.
+3.9 ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -4.39
to -9.96.
-5.6 ▼
Wed 2:13p ET
FG win prob home moved from 63.4pp
to 78.1pp.
+14.7pp ▲
Wed 2:13p ET
Tier changed from —
to lean.
noted
Wed 2:13p ET
Top market changed from —
to FG ML away.
noted
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 any-score moved from 92.3pp
to 91.1pp.
-1.2pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Home scores Q1 moved from 74.8pp
to 66.1pp.
-8.7pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Away scores Q1 moved from 59.3pp
to 65.2pp.
+5.9pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML home moved from 56.1pp
to 39.6pp.
-16.5pp ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 ML away moved from 22.3pp
to 38.8pp.
+16.5pp ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 total (model) moved from 9.48
to 8.7.
-0.8 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
Q1 margin (model) moved from 3.45
to 0.07.
-3.4 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG total (model) moved from 46.09
to 42.24.
-3.9 ▼
Wed 2:08p ET
FG spread (model) moved from -9.96
to -4.39.
+5.6 ▲
Wed 2:08p ET
FG win prob home moved from 78.1pp
to 63.4pp.
-14.7pp ▼
Wed 12:14a ET
First numbers published.
Q1 total projected 9.5.
noted
How 8 similar games actually opened
DATE
GAME
FINAL
Q1 PTS
FIRST SCORE
Oct 30, 2022
GB @ BUF
/ 47 / -10.5
BUF 27: GB 17
7
TD, BUF
Oct 16, 2022
TB @ PIT
/ 47 / +10
PIT 20: TB 18
10
TD, PIT
Oct 12, 2023
DEN @ KC
/ 47.5 / -10.5
KC 19: DEN 8
3
FG, KC
Sep 19, 2022
TEN @ BUF
/ 47.5 / -10
BUF 41: TEN 7
14
TD, BUF
Sep 18, 2022
HOU @ DEN
/ 46 / -10.5
DEN 16: HOU 9
6
FG, DEN
Oct 9, 2022
ATL @ TB
/ 46 / -10.5
TB 21: ATL 15
0
scoreless
Dec 29, 2024
CAR @ TB
/ 47.5 / -9.5
TB 48: CAR 14
17
TD, TB
Sep 17, 2023
LV @ BUF
/ 47 / -7.5
BUF 38: LV 10
14
TD, LV
Closest 8 of 2022–2025 priced games
88% scored in Q1
, mean Q1 total 8.9
, opening drive scored 38%