Public ledger, 112 picks graded, 2026 season, current markets

Every pick, graded. Publicly.
Nothing here was added after kickoff.

We publish every pick before kickoff and grade it once the game goes final. No screenshots, no retroactive edits, no "this would've won." This view shows the markets we still publish. Every pick from the markets we retired is still on file: see the full history, or download it all as CSV.

Current markets since Oct 27, 2026

No picks graded yet.

The record from the day we retired two markets, counting only the markets we still publish. It is the cleanest test of the current model, because the cut was decided before any of these games were played. The first of these picks grade with the next slate.

Current markets Full history (174)

Retired from picks: Game spread on Oct 27, 2026 (14-22 (3P), -8.6u), Q1 total Over on Oct 27, 2026 (6-16 (1P), -9.5u). Both lost money and lost to the closing line, so we stopped publishing them. They are left out of the figures below, not deleted: full history includes them.

Graded record 42–54 43.8% on graded picks, 16 push
Cumulative units +9.9u Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u
ROI +7.9% vs. break-even
Average CLV +0.22pp lock → close fair move
Open picks 0 posted, not yet graded

Picks are graded at the lock price, the price available when the pick posted, not a better one found later, and staked by tier: Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u, the sizes the badges recommend. ROI is net units over units staked. CLV is the de-vigged fair-probability move from lock to close. Tier thresholds are not yet empirically tuned and are held fixed until at least 100 picks settle, so early tier splits carry very little signal. Not investment advice.

Cumulative units, Sep 9, 2026 → Oct 26, 2026

+9.9u net, across 112 graded picks

+9.9u Current
112 Graded
0 Open
Sep 9 Oct 26
Gold Zone 6–2 75.0%, n=8 +14.3u on 26u staked
Wager 36–52 40.9%, n=88 -4.4u on 99u staked
By market 112 graded
MARKETRECORDWIN % UNITS ROI CLV
Q1 moneyline 16-21 (11P) 43.2% +6.2u +10.2% +0.24pp
Q1 total 3-5 (4P) 37.5% -1.6u -13.7% +0.69pp
Game moneyline 15-22 (1P) 40.5% +3.4u +8.9% -0.08pp
Game total 8-6 57.1% +1.9u +13.8% +0.54pp
Showing 101–112 of 112 graded picks, sorted newest first Export: CSV ↓  /  JSON ↓
POSTED TIER GAME PICK EDGE RESULT GRADE
Aug 30, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager TB @ CIN Game moneylineTB (+185) +4.7 Q1 TB 3–14 CIN · Final 27–33 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager TB @ CIN Q1 moneylineTB (+146) +5.1 Q1 TB 3–14 CIN · Final 27–33 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 10, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager ARI @ LAC Game moneylineARI (+370) +4.9 Q1 ARI 7–7 LAC · Final 26–14 ✓ Win +3.70u
Aug 30, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager MIA @ LV Game moneylineMIA (+169) +6.5 Q1 MIA 0–7 LV · Final 13–27 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 9, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager MIA @ LV Game totalUnder 40.5 (+102) +4.0 Q1 MIA 0–7 LV · Final 13–27 ✓ Win +1.02u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager MIA @ LV Q1 moneylineMIA (+131) +4.0 Q1 MIA 0–7 LV · Final 13–27 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager MIA @ LV Q1 totalUnder 7 (+112) +5.0 Q1 MIA 0–7 LV · Final 13–27 Push +0.00u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Gold WSH @ PHI Q1 moneylineWSH (+153) +7.9 Q1 WSH 3–0 PHI · Final 22–24 ✓ Win +3.06u
Sep 13, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager DAL @ NYG Q1 totalUnder 9.5 (+111) +4.1 Q1 DAL 0–7 NYG · Final 20–28 ✓ Win +1.11u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 10 Wager SF @ LAR Q1 moneylineSF (+133) +4.5 Q1 SF 3–0 LAR · Final 27–7 ✓ Win +1.33u
Sep 3, 2026kickoff Sep 9 Wager NE @ SEA Game moneylineNE (+162) +4.3 Q1 NE 0–0 SEA · Final 10–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 9 Wager NE @ SEA Q1 moneylineNE (+129) +4.0 Q1 NE 0–0 SEA · Final 10–13 Push +0.00u
Page 5 of 5, showing 101–112 of 112 picks
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