Public ledger, 76 picks graded, 2026 season

Every pick, graded. Publicly.
Nothing here was added after kickoff.

We publish every pick before kickoff and grade it once the game goes final. No screenshots, no retroactive edits, no "this would've won." This is the entire pick history, timestamped and verifiable.

Graded record 40–33 54.8% on graded picks, 3 push
Cumulative units +7.8u 1u flat / pick
ROI +10.2% vs. break-even
Average CLV -0.43pp lock → close fair move
Open picks 44 posted, not yet graded

Picks are graded 1u flat at the lock price, the price available when the pick posted, not a better one found later. CLV is the de-vigged fair-probability move from lock to close. Tier thresholds are not yet empirically tuned and are held fixed until at least 100 picks settle, so early tier splits carry very little signal. Not investment advice.

Cumulative units, Aug 21, 2026 → Sep 10, 2026

+7.8u net, across 76 graded picks

+7.8u Current
76 Graded
44 Open
Aug 21 Sep 10
Gold Zone 18–11 62.1%, n=29 +5.6u, 2.0u flat
Wager 15–14 51.7%, n=29 +3.1u, 1.0u flat
Lean 7–8 46.7%, n=15 -0.9u, 0.25u flat
By market 76 graded
MARKETRECORDWIN % UNITS ROI CLV
Q1 moneyline 1-0 (1P) 100.0% +1.3u +66.5% +1.54pp
Q1 total 0-1 0.0% -1.0u -100.0% -2.45pp
Game moneyline 10-8 (1P) 55.6% +3.9u +20.4% -0.40pp
Game spread 13-8 (1P) 61.9% +4.2u +19.1% -0.72pp
Game total 16-16 50.0% -0.6u -2.0% -0.33pp
Showing 1–25 of 76 graded picks, sorted newest first Export: CSV ↓  /  JSON ↓
POSTED TIER GAME PICK EDGE RESULT GRADE
Aug 30, 2026kickoff Sep 10 Wager SF @ LAR Game spreadLAR -3.5 (-108) +4.2 Q1 SF 3–0 LAR · Final 27–7 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 31, 2026kickoff Sep 10 Lean SF @ LAR Game totalUnder 48 (-106) +3.2 Q1 SF 3–0 LAR · Final 27–7 ✓ Win +0.94u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 10 Wager SF @ LAR Q1 moneylineSF (+133) +4.8 Q1 SF 3–0 LAR · Final 27–7 ✓ Win +1.33u
Aug 30, 2026kickoff Sep 9 Wager NE @ SEA Game moneylineNE (+159) +4.6 Q1 NE 0–0 SEA · Final 10–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 8, 2026kickoff Sep 9 Wager NE @ SEA Game spreadNE +3 (-100) +4.3 Q1 NE 0–0 SEA · Final 10–13 Push +0.00u
Aug 30, 2026kickoff Sep 9 Lean NE @ SEA Game totalOver 44.5 (-105) +3.6 Q1 NE 0–0 SEA · Final 10–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 9 Wager NE @ SEA Q1 moneylineNE (+129) +4.2 Q1 NE 0–0 SEA · Final 10–13 Push +0.00u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 9 Gold NE @ SEA Q1 totalOver 7.5 (-102) +10.6 Q1 NE 0–0 SEA · Final 10–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 29 Wager DET @ IND Game moneylineDET (+163) +6.0 Final 25–16 ✓ Win +1.63u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 29 Lean DET @ IND Game spreadDET +4 (-110) +3.8 Final 25–16 ✓ Win +0.91u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 29 Lean DET @ IND Game totalOver 36 (+102) +3.9 Final 25–16 ✓ Win +1.02u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 29 Wager CHI @ TEN Game totalOver 37 (-103) +6.7 Final 24–15 ✓ Win +0.97u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Gold CIN @ PHI Game spreadPHI -2.5 (-120) +14.0 Final 30–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Gold CIN @ PHI Game totalOver 36 (-104) +10.3 Final 30–13 ✓ Win +0.96u
Aug 28, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Wager WSH @ BAL Game moneylineWSH (+159) +4.5 Final 3–41 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 28, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Wager WSH @ BAL Game spreadWSH +3 (+111) +4.4 Final 3–41 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Wager WSH @ BAL Game totalOver 34.5 (-110) +4.9 Final 3–41 ✓ Win +0.91u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Wager NYG @ NYJ Game moneylineNYG (-159) +4.0 Final 23–6 ✓ Win +0.63u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Wager NYG @ NYJ Game spreadNYG -3 (-113) +4.8 Final 23–6 ✓ Win +0.89u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Lean NYG @ NYJ Game totalOver 37 (-107) +3.9 Final 23–6 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 28, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Wager ATL @ MIA Game moneylineMIA (+165) +5.4 Final 17–12 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 28, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Wager ATL @ MIA Game spreadMIA +3.5 (+108) +4.4 Final 17–12 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Gold ATL @ MIA Game totalOver 36.5 (-106) +8.0 Final 17–12 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Wager SEA @ KC Game moneylineSEA (-137) +5.0 Final 9–9 Push +0.00u
Aug 27, 2026kickoff Aug 28 Lean SEA @ KC Game spreadSEA -2.5 (-103) +3.8 Final 9–9 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Page 1 of 4, showing 1–25 of 76 picks
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