Public ledger, 76 picks graded, 2026 season

Every pick, graded. Publicly.
Nothing here was added after kickoff.

We publish every pick before kickoff and grade it once the game goes final. No screenshots, no retroactive edits, no "this would've won." This is the entire pick history, timestamped and verifiable.

Graded record 40–33 54.8% on graded picks, 3 push
Cumulative units +7.8u 1u flat / pick
ROI +10.2% vs. break-even
Average CLV -0.43pp lock → close fair move
Open picks 44 posted, not yet graded

Picks are graded 1u flat at the lock price, the price available when the pick posted, not a better one found later. CLV is the de-vigged fair-probability move from lock to close. Tier thresholds are not yet empirically tuned and are held fixed until at least 100 picks settle, so early tier splits carry very little signal. Not investment advice.

Cumulative units, Aug 21, 2026 → Sep 10, 2026

+7.8u net, across 76 graded picks

+7.8u Current
76 Graded
44 Open
Aug 21 Sep 10
Gold Zone 18–11 62.1%, n=29 +5.6u, 2.0u flat
Wager 15–14 51.7%, n=29 +3.1u, 1.0u flat
Lean 7–8 46.7%, n=15 -0.9u, 0.25u flat
By market 76 graded
MARKETRECORDWIN % UNITS ROI CLV
Q1 moneyline 1-0 (1P) 100.0% +1.3u +66.5% +1.54pp
Q1 total 0-1 0.0% -1.0u -100.0% -2.45pp
Game moneyline 10-8 (1P) 55.6% +3.9u +20.4% -0.40pp
Game spread 13-8 (1P) 61.9% +4.2u +19.1% -0.72pp
Game total 16-16 50.0% -0.6u -2.0% -0.33pp
Showing 51–75 of 76 graded picks, sorted newest first Export: CSV ↓  /  JSON ↓
POSTED TIER GAME PICK EDGE RESULT GRADE
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold NO @ LAR Game spreadLAR +2 (-118) +12.2 Final 0–34 ✓ Win +0.85u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold NO @ LAR Game totalOver 37 (-115) +8.1 Final 0–34 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Wager BAL @ MIN Game moneylineBAL (+156) +5.7 Final 13–3 ✓ Win +1.56u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Wager BAL @ MIN Game spreadBAL +3 (+101) +6.2 Final 13–3 ✓ Win +1.01u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold BAL @ MIN Game totalOver 36.5 (-109) +8.3 Final 13–3 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Wager NYG @ MIA Game moneylineMIA (+146) +6.2 Final 26–3 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Lean NYG @ MIA Game spreadMIA +3 (-102) +3.6 Final 26–3 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold NYG @ MIA Game totalOver 37 (-100) +7.2 Final 26–3 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold PHI @ NE Game moneylineNE (+105) +9.9 Final 21–24 ✓ Win +1.05u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold PHI @ NE Game spreadNE +1.5 (-105) +11.6 Final 21–24 ✓ Win +0.95u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold PHI @ NE Game totalOver 36.5 (-108) +13.0 Final 21–24 ✓ Win +0.93u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold BUF @ CLE Game totalOver 37 (-112) +11.1 Final 31–7 ✓ Win +0.89u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold ATL @ IND Game spreadATL +3.5 (-112) +7.2 Final 34–6 ✓ Win +0.89u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold ATL @ IND Game totalOver 36 (-108) +9.3 Final 34–6 ✓ Win +0.93u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold KC @ TB Game moneylineKC (+192) +10.7 Final 15–16 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold KC @ TB Game spreadKC +5 (-105) +7.4 Final 15–16 ✓ Win +0.95u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold KC @ TB Game totalOver 37 (-108) +7.6 Final 15–16 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Gold WSH @ DET Game totalOver 36.5 (-111) +8.3 Final 13–17 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 22, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Wager DAL @ ARI Game moneylineARI (+107) +4.1 Final 34–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 22, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Lean DAL @ ARI Game spreadARI -1 (+117) +3.2 Final 34–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 22 Wager DAL @ ARI Game totalOver 38 (-104) +4.1 Final 34–13 ✓ Win +0.96u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 21 Wager CAR @ JAX Game totalOver 37 (-113) +6.5 Final 34–17 ✓ Win +0.89u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 21 Lean NYJ @ PIT Game totalOver 38 (-107) +3.2 Final 17–0 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 21 Wager GB @ DEN Game moneylineGB (+215) +6.8 Final 33–13 ✓ Win +2.15u
Aug 21, 2026kickoff Aug 21 Wager GB @ DEN Game spreadGB +6 (-109) +5.1 Final 33–13 ✓ Win +0.92u
Page 3 of 4, showing 51–75 of 76 picks
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