This week / Teams / New England Patriots
Profile, 2022–2025, refreshed Wed 2:23p ET
NE
AFC East, Q1 offence #26 of 32

Patriots.

New England Patriots / 72 games in sample / This week @ MIA
Q1 points / game
3.8
#26 of 32
Scores in Q1
54%
of games in sample
Allows a Q1 score
65%
4.3 pts allowed
Opening drive scores
37%
38 times with the ball first

This week

Sun, Nov 1 at 4:25p ET, Hard Rock Stadium
Lean FG ML home

at MIA, best edge +3.2

The model has NE ahead when the quarter ends 51% of the time, with the quarter level 22% and 7.6 pts projected in it. NE gets on the board 68% of the time, the opening drive ends in points 43% and someone gets on the board at 90% — all three shown as context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.

Quick markets
Opening drive scores 43%
Q1 total proj 7.6
Game spread MIA +7
Game total 44.5

Q1 points, last 12

Sample average 3.8 pts per Q1
7
@TB
0
NYJ
0
@CIN
17
NYG
14
BUF
0
@BAL
14
@NYJ
14
MIA
0
LAC
7
HOU
0
@DEN
0
SEA

Game log

72 games, 2022–2025
DATE OPP Q1 PTS OPENING DRIVE FIRST SCORE FINAL Q1
Feb 8Wk 22 vsSEA 0: 3 on defence FG, SEA 13–29 ✗ lost
Jan 25Wk 21 @DEN 0: 7 on defence TD, DEN 10–7 ✗ lost
Jan 18Wk 20 vsHOU 7: 3 had the ball, Punt TD, NE 28–16 ✓ won
Jan 11Wk 19 vsLAC 0: 0 had the ball, Punt scoreless 16–3 – level
Jan 4Wk 18 vsMIA 14: 0 had the ball, Touchdown TD, NE 38–10 ✓ won
Dec 28Wk 17 @NYJ 14: 0 had the ball, Touchdown TD, NE 42–10 ✓ won
Dec 21Wk 16 @BAL 0: 7 on defence TD, BAL 28–24 ✗ lost
Dec 14Wk 15 vsBUF 14: 0 had the ball, Touchdown TD, NE 31–35 ✓ won
Dec 1Wk 13 vsNYG 17: 0 had the ball, Field goal FG, NE 33–15 ✓ won
Nov 23Wk 12 @CIN 0: 3 had the ball, Punt FG, CIN 26–20 ✗ lost
Nov 13Wk 11 vsNYJ 0: 7 on defence TD, NYJ 27–14 ✗ lost
Nov 9Wk 10 @TB 7: 7 on defence TD, TB 28–23 – level
Showing 12 of 72 Wins the quarter 39% of the time by scoring first

Browse teams

Ranked by Q1 points per game, 2022–2025
DET, #1 5.9 Q1 pts PHI, #2 5.6 Q1 pts SEA, #3 5.3 Q1 pts BUF, #4 5.3 Q1 pts CIN, #5 5.3 Q1 pts SF, #6 5.2 Q1 pts DAL, #7 5.2 Q1 pts IND, #8 4.9 Q1 pts BAL, #9 4.8 Q1 pts MIA, #10 4.7 Q1 pts GB, #11 4.6 Q1 pts LAR, #12 4.6 Q1 pts LAC, #13 4.5 Q1 pts MIN, #14 4.5 Q1 pts TEN, #15 4.4 Q1 pts KC, #16 4.4 Q1 pts HOU, #17 4.3 Q1 pts ATL, #18 4.2 Q1 pts TB, #19 4.1 Q1 pts DEN, #20 4.0 Q1 pts JAX, #21 4.0 Q1 pts CHI, #22 4.0 Q1 pts CLE, #23 4.0 Q1 pts ARI, #24 4.0 Q1 pts LV, #25 3.9 Q1 pts NE, #26 3.8 Q1 pts NO, #27 3.5 Q1 pts WSH, #28 3.5 Q1 pts PIT, #29 3.4 Q1 pts NYJ, #30 3.2 Q1 pts CAR, #31 3.0 Q1 pts NYG, #32 2.8 Q1 pts
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