This week / Teams / Buffalo Bills
Profile, 2022–2025, refreshed Sat 3:14a ET
BUF
AFC East, Q1 offence #4 of 32

Bills.

Buffalo Bills / 76 games in sample / This week @ HOU
Q1 points / game
5.3
#4 of 32
Scores in Q1
75%
of games in sample
Allows a Q1 score
68%
4.6 pts allowed
Opening drive scores
43%
35 times with the ball first

This week

Sun, Sep 13 at 1:00p ET, Reliant Stadium
Wager Q1 Total Over

at HOU, best edge +5.8

The model has BUF ahead when the quarter ends 41% of the time, with the quarter level 22% and 8.2 pts projected in it. BUF gets on the board 65% of the time, the opening drive ends in points 37% and someone gets on the board at 90% — all three shown as context only: back-testing found no edge on any of them, so none carries a pick.

Quick markets
Opening drive scores 37%
Q1 total proj 8.2
Game spread HOU +1
Game total 45

Q1 points, last 12

Sample average 5.3 pts per Q1
7
KC
0
@MIA
7
TB
6
@HOU
0
@PIT
3
CIN
0
@NE
7
@CLE
0
PHI
7
NYJ
3
@JAX
7
@DEN

Game log

76 games, 2022–2025
DATE OPP Q1 PTS OPENING DRIVE FIRST SCORE FINAL Q1
Jan 17Wk 20 @DEN 7: 3 on defence FG, DEN 30–33 ✓ won
Jan 11Wk 19 @JAX 3: 0 on defence FG, BUF 27–24 ✓ won
Jan 4Wk 18 vsNYJ 7: 0 had the ball, Touchdown TD, BUF 35–8 ✓ won
Dec 28Wk 17 vsPHI 0: 7 on defence TD, PHI 12–13 ✗ lost
Dec 21Wk 16 @CLE 7: 7 on defence TD, CLE 23–20 – level
Dec 14Wk 15 @NE 0: 14 on defence TD, NE 35–31 ✗ lost
Dec 7Wk 14 vsCIN 3: 7 on defence TD, CIN 39–34 ✗ lost
Nov 30Wk 13 @PIT 0: 0 had the ball, Turnover scoreless 26–7 – level
Nov 20Wk 12 @HOU 6: 3 on defence TD, BUF 19–23 ✓ won
Nov 16Wk 11 vsTB 7: 3 on defence FG, TB 44–32 ✓ won
Nov 9Wk 10 @MIA 0: 7 on defence TD, MIA 13–30 ✗ lost
Nov 2Wk 9 vsKC 7: 0 had the ball, Touchdown TD, BUF 28–21 ✓ won
Showing 12 of 76 Wins the quarter 46% of the time by scoring first

Browse teams

Ranked by Q1 points per game, 2022–2025
DET, #1 5.9 Q1 pts PHI, #2 5.6 Q1 pts SEA, #3 5.3 Q1 pts BUF, #4 5.3 Q1 pts CIN, #5 5.3 Q1 pts SF, #6 5.2 Q1 pts DAL, #7 5.2 Q1 pts IND, #8 4.9 Q1 pts BAL, #9 4.8 Q1 pts MIA, #10 4.7 Q1 pts GB, #11 4.6 Q1 pts LAR, #12 4.6 Q1 pts LAC, #13 4.5 Q1 pts MIN, #14 4.5 Q1 pts TEN, #15 4.4 Q1 pts KC, #16 4.4 Q1 pts HOU, #17 4.3 Q1 pts ATL, #18 4.2 Q1 pts TB, #19 4.1 Q1 pts DEN, #20 4.0 Q1 pts JAX, #21 4.0 Q1 pts CHI, #22 4.0 Q1 pts CLE, #23 4.0 Q1 pts ARI, #24 4.0 Q1 pts LV, #25 3.9 Q1 pts NE, #26 3.8 Q1 pts NO, #27 3.5 Q1 pts WSH, #28 3.5 Q1 pts PIT, #29 3.4 Q1 pts NYJ, #30 3.2 Q1 pts CAR, #31 3.0 Q1 pts NYG, #32 2.8 Q1 pts