Public ledger, 174 picks graded, 2026 season

Every pick, graded. Publicly.
Nothing here was added after kickoff.

We publish every pick before kickoff and grade it once the game goes final. No screenshots, no retroactive edits, no "this would've won." This is the entire pick history, timestamped and verifiable, including markets we have since retired.

Current markets since Oct 27, 2026

No picks graded yet.

The record from the day we retired two markets, counting only the markets we still publish. It is the cleanest test of the current model, because the cut was decided before any of these games were played. The first of these picks grade with the next slate.

Current markets Full history (174)

Retired from picks: Game spread on Oct 27, 2026 (14-22 (3P), -8.6u), Q1 total Over on Oct 27, 2026 (6-16 (1P), -9.5u). Both lost money and lost to the closing line, so we stopped publishing them. They are included in the figures below.

Graded record 62–92 40.3% on graded picks, 20 push
Cumulative units -8.2u Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u
ROI -4.4% vs. break-even
Average CLV -0.02pp lock → close fair move
Open picks 0 posted, not yet graded

Picks are graded at the lock price, the price available when the pick posted, not a better one found later, and staked by tier: Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u, the sizes the badges recommend. ROI is net units over units staked. CLV is the de-vigged fair-probability move from lock to close. Tier thresholds are not yet empirically tuned and are held fixed until at least 100 picks settle, so early tier splits carry very little signal. Not investment advice.

Cumulative units, Sep 9, 2026 → Oct 26, 2026

-8.2u net, across 174 graded picks

-8.2u Current
174 Graded
0 Open
Sep 9 Oct 26
Gold Zone 6–3 66.7%, n=9 +12.3u on 28u staked
Wager 56–89 38.6%, n=145 -20.6u on 160u staked
By market 174 graded
MARKETRECORDWIN % UNITS ROI CLV
Q1 moneyline 16-21 (11P) 43.2% +6.2u +10.2% +0.24pp
Q1 total 9-21 (5P) 30.0% -11.1u -31.8% +0.30pp
Game moneyline 15-22 (1P) 40.5% +3.4u +8.9% -0.08pp
Game spread 14-22 (3P) 38.9% -8.6u -21.6% -0.76pp
Game total 8-6 57.1% +1.9u +13.8% +0.54pp
Showing 151–174 of 174 graded picks, sorted newest first Export: CSV ↓  /  JSON ↓
POSTED TIER GAME PICK EDGE RESULT GRADE
Sep 14, 2026kickoff Sep 14 Wager DEN @ KC Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+111) +4.2 Q1 DEN 7–7 KC ✓ Win +1.11u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager ATL @ PIT Game spreadATL +3 (+112) +5.2 Q1 ATL 7–3 PIT · Final 13–20 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Gold ATL @ PIT Q1 moneylineATL (+134) +9.5 Q1 ATL 7–3 PIT · Final 13–20 ✓ Win +2.68u
Sep 10, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager ATL @ PIT Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+108) +5.0 Q1 ATL 7–3 PIT · Final 13–20 ✓ Win +1.08u
Aug 30, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager BAL @ IND Game moneylineIND (+154) +4.5 Q1 BAL 14–6 IND · Final 41–23 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Aug 30, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager BUF @ HOU Game moneylineBUF (-105) +4.5 Q1 BUF 3–7 HOU · Final 36–31 ✓ Win +0.95u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager CLE @ JAX Q1 totalUnder 7 (+116) +4.3 Q1 CLE 0–14 JAX · Final 10–34 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 13, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager NO @ DET Q1 moneylineDET (-204) +5.4 Q1 NO 0–7 DET · Final 30–31 ✓ Win +0.49u
Aug 30, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager TB @ CIN Game moneylineTB (+185) +4.7 Q1 TB 3–14 CIN · Final 27–33 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager TB @ CIN Q1 moneylineTB (+146) +5.1 Q1 TB 3–14 CIN · Final 27–33 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 10, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager ARI @ LAC Game moneylineARI (+370) +4.9 Q1 ARI 7–7 LAC · Final 26–14 ✓ Win +3.70u
Aug 30, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Gold GB @ MIN Game spreadGB +1 (-103) +8.9 Final 22–39 ✗ Loss -2.00u
Aug 30, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager MIA @ LV Game moneylineMIA (+169) +6.5 Q1 MIA 0–7 LV · Final 13–27 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 9, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager MIA @ LV Game totalUnder 40.5 (+102) +4.0 Q1 MIA 0–7 LV · Final 13–27 ✓ Win +1.02u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager MIA @ LV Q1 moneylineMIA (+131) +4.0 Q1 MIA 0–7 LV · Final 13–27 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager MIA @ LV Q1 totalUnder 7 (+112) +5.0 Q1 MIA 0–7 LV · Final 13–27 Push +0.00u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Gold WSH @ PHI Q1 moneylineWSH (+153) +7.9 Q1 WSH 3–0 PHI · Final 22–24 ✓ Win +3.06u
Aug 30, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager DAL @ NYG Game spreadNYG +2.5 (+108) +6.2 Q1 DAL 0–7 NYG · Final 20–28 ✓ Win +1.08u
Sep 13, 2026kickoff Sep 13 Wager DAL @ NYG Q1 totalUnder 9.5 (+111) +4.1 Q1 DAL 0–7 NYG · Final 20–28 ✓ Win +1.11u
Sep 5, 2026kickoff Sep 10 Wager SF @ LAR Game spreadLAR -3.5 (+101) +4.4 Q1 SF 3–0 LAR · Final 27–7 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 10 Wager SF @ LAR Q1 moneylineSF (+133) +4.5 Q1 SF 3–0 LAR · Final 27–7 ✓ Win +1.33u
Sep 3, 2026kickoff Sep 9 Wager NE @ SEA Game moneylineNE (+162) +4.3 Q1 NE 0–0 SEA · Final 10–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 6, 2026kickoff Sep 9 Wager NE @ SEA Q1 moneylineNE (+129) +4.0 Q1 NE 0–0 SEA · Final 10–13 Push +0.00u
Sep 9, 2026kickoff Sep 9 Wager NE @ SEA Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+108) +4.6 Q1 NE 0–0 SEA · Final 10–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
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