Public ledger, 174 picks graded, 2026 season

Every pick, graded. Publicly.
Nothing here was added after kickoff.

We publish every pick before kickoff and grade it once the game goes final. No screenshots, no retroactive edits, no "this would've won." This is the entire pick history, timestamped and verifiable, including markets we have since retired.

Current markets since Oct 27, 2026

No picks graded yet.

The record from the day we retired two markets, counting only the markets we still publish. It is the cleanest test of the current model, because the cut was decided before any of these games were played. The first of these picks grade with the next slate.

Current markets Full history (174)

Retired from picks: Game spread on Oct 27, 2026 (14-22 (3P), -8.6u), Q1 total Over on Oct 27, 2026 (6-16 (1P), -9.5u). Both lost money and lost to the closing line, so we stopped publishing them. They are included in the figures below.

Graded record 62–92 40.3% on graded picks, 20 push
Cumulative units -8.2u Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u
ROI -4.4% vs. break-even
Average CLV -0.02pp lock → close fair move
Open picks 0 posted, not yet graded

Picks are graded at the lock price, the price available when the pick posted, not a better one found later, and staked by tier: Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u, the sizes the badges recommend. ROI is net units over units staked. CLV is the de-vigged fair-probability move from lock to close. Tier thresholds are not yet empirically tuned and are held fixed until at least 100 picks settle, so early tier splits carry very little signal. Not investment advice.

Cumulative units, Sep 9, 2026 → Oct 26, 2026

-8.2u net, across 174 graded picks

-8.2u Current
174 Graded
0 Open
Sep 9 Oct 26
Gold Zone 6–3 66.7%, n=9 +12.3u on 28u staked
Wager 56–89 38.6%, n=145 -20.6u on 160u staked
By market 174 graded
MARKETRECORDWIN % UNITS ROI CLV
Q1 moneyline 16-21 (11P) 43.2% +6.2u +10.2% +0.24pp
Q1 total 9-21 (5P) 30.0% -11.1u -31.8% +0.30pp
Game moneyline 15-22 (1P) 40.5% +3.4u +8.9% -0.08pp
Game spread 14-22 (3P) 38.9% -8.6u -21.6% -0.76pp
Game total 8-6 57.1% +1.9u +13.8% +0.54pp
Showing 126–150 of 174 graded picks, sorted newest first Export: CSV ↓  /  JSON ↓
POSTED TIER GAME PICK EDGE RESULT GRADE
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager CAR @ ATL Game spreadATL +2.5 (-101) +5.5 Final 34–3 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager CIN @ HOU Game spreadHOU -3 (+109) +4.4 Q1 CIN 0–0 HOU · Final 20–6 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 20, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager CIN @ HOU Q1 totalOver 9.5 (+113) +4.7 Q1 CIN 0–0 HOU · Final 20–6 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager CLE @ TB Game totalUnder 41 (+100) +4.9 Q1 CLE 3–6 TB · Final 23–19 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager CLE @ TB Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+109) +4.1 Q1 CLE 3–6 TB · Final 23–19 ✓ Win +1.09u
Sep 19, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager GB @ NYJ Game spreadGB -3 (-106) +4.8 Final 20–17 Push +0.00u
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager MIN @ CHI Game spreadCHI -5.5 (+109) +5.3 Q1 MIN 3–3 CHI · Final 9–3 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 20, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager MIN @ CHI Game totalUnder 47 (-105) +4.1 Q1 MIN 3–3 CHI · Final 9–3 ✓ Win +0.95u
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Gold MIN @ CHI Q1 moneylineCHI (-166) +7.4 Q1 MIN 3–3 CHI · Final 9–3 Push +0.00u
Sep 19, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager NO @ BAL Game moneylineNO (+348) +4.3 Final 24–17 ✓ Win +3.48u
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager PHI @ TEN Game spreadPHI -7.5 (+106) +5.3 Q1 PHI 0–7 TEN · Final 24–20 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Gold PHI @ TEN Q1 moneylineTEN (+163) +9.1 Q1 PHI 0–7 TEN · Final 24–20 ✓ Win +3.26u
Sep 20, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager PHI @ TEN Q1 totalUnder 7 (+119) +4.9 Q1 PHI 0–7 TEN · Final 24–20 Push +0.00u
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager MIA @ SF Game moneylineMIA (+690) +5.4 Final 13–35 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager SEA @ ARI Q1 totalUnder 7 (+113) +4.4 Q1 SEA 7–0 ARI Push +0.00u
Sep 18, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager WSH @ DAL Game totalUnder 50 (+103) +4.1 Q1 WSH 0–10 DAL · Final 20–37 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager WSH @ DAL Q1 moneylineWSH (+141) +5.6 Q1 WSH 0–10 DAL · Final 20–37 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 20, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager WSH @ DAL Q1 totalUnder 9.5 (+110) +4.0 Q1 WSH 0–10 DAL · Final 20–37 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager IND @ KC Game moneylineIND (+242) +5.5 Q1 IND 7–10 KC · Final 30–33 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 20, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager IND @ KC Q1 moneylineIND (+139) +6.6 Q1 IND 7–10 KC · Final 30–33 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 20, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager PIT @ NE Game spreadNE -5.5 (+106) +5.7 Q1 PIT 0–7 NE · Final 3–20 ✓ Win +1.06u
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager PIT @ NE Q1 moneylinePIT (+149) +4.9 Q1 PIT 0–7 NE · Final 3–20 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 20 Wager PIT @ NE Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+108) +4.9 Q1 PIT 0–7 NE · Final 3–20 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 17, 2026kickoff Sep 17 Wager DET @ BUF Game moneylineDET (+210) +5.0 Q1 DET 0–14 BUF · Final 31–41 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Sep 16, 2026kickoff Sep 17 Wager DET @ BUF Q1 moneylineDET (+130) +4.5 Q1 DET 0–14 BUF · Final 31–41 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Page 6 of 7, showing 126–150 of 174 picks
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