Public ledger, 174 picks graded, 2026 season

Every pick, graded. Publicly.
Nothing here was added after kickoff.

We publish every pick before kickoff and grade it once the game goes final. No screenshots, no retroactive edits, no "this would've won." This is the entire pick history, timestamped and verifiable, including markets we have since retired.

Current markets since Oct 27, 2026

No picks graded yet.

The record from the day we retired two markets, counting only the markets we still publish. It is the cleanest test of the current model, because the cut was decided before any of these games were played. The first of these picks grade with the next slate.

Current markets Full history (174)

Retired from picks: Game spread on Oct 27, 2026 (14-22 (3P), -8.6u), Q1 total Over on Oct 27, 2026 (6-16 (1P), -9.5u). Both lost money and lost to the closing line, so we stopped publishing them. They are included in the figures below.

Graded record 62–92 40.3% on graded picks, 20 push
Cumulative units -8.2u Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u
ROI -4.4% vs. break-even
Average CLV -0.02pp lock → close fair move
Open picks 0 posted, not yet graded

Picks are graded at the lock price, the price available when the pick posted, not a better one found later, and staked by tier: Gold Zone 2u, Wager 1u, the sizes the badges recommend. ROI is net units over units staked. CLV is the de-vigged fair-probability move from lock to close. Tier thresholds are not yet empirically tuned and are held fixed until at least 100 picks settle, so early tier splits carry very little signal. Not investment advice.

Cumulative units, Sep 9, 2026 → Oct 26, 2026

-8.2u net, across 174 graded picks

-8.2u Current
174 Graded
0 Open
Sep 9 Oct 26
Gold Zone 6–3 66.7%, n=9 +12.3u on 28u staked
Wager 56–89 38.6%, n=145 -20.6u on 160u staked
By market 174 graded
MARKETRECORDWIN % UNITS ROI CLV
Q1 moneyline 16-21 (11P) 43.2% +6.2u +10.2% +0.24pp
Q1 total 9-21 (5P) 30.0% -11.1u -31.8% +0.30pp
Game moneyline 15-22 (1P) 40.5% +3.4u +8.9% -0.08pp
Game spread 14-22 (3P) 38.9% -8.6u -21.6% -0.76pp
Game total 8-6 57.1% +1.9u +13.8% +0.54pp
Showing 51–75 of 174 graded picks, sorted newest first Export: CSV ↓  /  JSON ↓
POSTED TIER GAME PICK EDGE RESULT GRADE
Oct 11, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager CLE @ NYJ Game totalUnder 39 (-106) +4.9 Final 12–17 ✓ Win +0.94u
Oct 9, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager HOU @ TEN Game spreadHOU -7.5 (+108) +5.7 Q1 HOU 3–3 TEN · Final 26–3 ✓ Win +1.08u
Oct 8, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager HOU @ TEN Game totalUnder 37.5 (+103) +4.9 Q1 HOU 3–3 TEN · Final 26–3 ✓ Win +1.03u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Gold HOU @ TEN Q1 moneylineTEN (+166) +7.5 Q1 HOU 3–3 TEN · Final 26–3 Push +0.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager IND @ PIT Game spreadIND +2.5 (+101) +4.9 Q1 IND 6–7 PIT · Final 22–34 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 11, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager IND @ PIT Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+106) +6.2 Q1 IND 6–7 PIT · Final 22–34 ✓ Win +1.06u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager LV @ NE Game moneylineNE (-187) +5.4 Q1 LV 7–14 NE · Final 17–45 ✓ Win +0.53u
Oct 11, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager LV @ NE Game totalUnder 45 (+103) +4.1 Q1 LV 7–14 NE · Final 17–45 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager LV @ NE Q1 moneylineLV (+139) +4.7 Q1 LV 7–14 NE · Final 17–45 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager MIN @ NO Game spreadNO +2 (+101) +4.0 Q1 MIN 3–0 NO · Final 23–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager MIN @ NO Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+109) +4.4 Q1 MIN 3–0 NO · Final 23–13 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager NYG @ WSH Game moneylineNYG (+161) +4.3 Q1 NYG 3–6 WSH · Final 27–27 Push +0.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager NYG @ WSH Q1 moneylineNYG (+135) +5.0 Q1 NYG 3–6 WSH · Final 27–27 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 9, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager DEN @ LAC Game moneylineLAC (+169) +4.5 Q1 DEN 7–0 LAC · Final 23–17 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 9, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager DEN @ LAC Q1 moneylineLAC (+126) +4.4 Q1 DEN 7–0 LAC · Final 23–17 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager DEN @ LAC Q1 totalOver 7.5 (+108) +4.0 Q1 DEN 7–0 LAC · Final 23–17 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager CHI @ GB Game spreadGB +2.5 (+104) +4.8 Final 7–31 ✓ Win +1.04u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager DET @ ARI Game moneylineARI (+218) +4.2 Q1 DET 0–7 ARI · Final 45–21 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager DET @ ARI Q1 moneylineARI (+134) +5.5 Q1 DET 0–7 ARI · Final 45–21 ✓ Win +1.34u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager DET @ ARI Q1 totalOver 10.5 (+110) +4.0 Q1 DET 0–7 ARI · Final 45–21 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 10, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager SF @ SEA Game spreadSEA -3.5 (+108) +5.8 Q1 SF 7–7 SEA · Final 32–29 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager SF @ SEA Q1 moneylineSF (+128) +4.5 Q1 SF 7–7 SEA · Final 32–29 Push +0.00u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager BAL @ ATL Game spreadBAL +3 (+108) +4.9 Q1 BAL 3–7 ATL · Final 30–23 ✓ Win +1.08u
Oct 7, 2026kickoff Oct 11 Wager BAL @ ATL Q1 moneylineBAL (+133) +4.0 Q1 BAL 3–7 ATL · Final 30–23 ✗ Loss -1.00u
Oct 8, 2026kickoff Oct 8 Wager TB @ DAL Game spreadTB +8.5 (-100) +4.5 Final 24–16 ✓ Win +1.00u
Page 3 of 7, showing 51–75 of 174 picks
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